MaxGhenis

Historical PolicyEngine US CTC Reform Reproduction

This directory contains an executed notebook reproducing the reform run against the historical PolicyEngine US stack current by the end of November 1, 2025 in America/New_York.

It includes both the main credit aggregates and the federal/state/payroll tax decomposition behind the household_net_income change.

Re-execution

Run the notebook from a clean environment with:

MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis

Can LLMs Forecast Human Value Evolution? (And Why We Can't Tell Yet)

Draft for EA Forum — feedback welcome

The Hypothesis

Human values change. Sometimes predictably — generational replacement, exposure effects, information cascades. If LLMs have learned these patterns from their training data, they might predict value trajectories better than simple extrapolation.

This matters for alignment. If we could forecast where human values are heading, we'd have a tool for:

• Anticipating moral circle expansion

MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis

Using PolicyEngine from Stata

Three approaches for integrating PolicyEngine tax-benefit calculations with Stata:

1. Direct Python integration (Stata 16+)

Stata 16+ has native Python integration. Install policyengine-us and call it directly:

python: