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NunoSempere/criminal-reform.md

Last active March 27, 2023 14:53
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criminal-reform.md 
initialPrisonPopulation = 1.8M to 2.5M # Data for 2022 prison population has not yet been published
reductionInPrisonPopulation = 0.01 to 0.2
badnessOfPrisonInQALYs = 0.2 to 5 # 80% as good as being alive to 5 times worse than living is good
counterfactualAccelerationInYears = 5 to 20
probabilityOfSuccess = 0.1 to 0.5 # 10% to 50%.
counterfactualImpactOfGrant = 0.5 to 1 ## other funders, labor cost of activism
estimateQALYs = leftTruncate(
    initialPrisonPopulation *
    reductionInPrisonPopulation *
    badnessOfPrisonInQALYs *
    counterfactualAccelerationInYears *
    probabilityOfSuccess *
    counterfactualImpactOfGrant
    , 0)
cost = 200M to 2B
costPerQALY = leftTruncate(cost / estimateQALYs, 0)
costPerQALY
@daaronr
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daaronr commented Mar 24, 2023

For a calculation that instead looks at more marginal impact, see here.

Can you explain what this does to make it more 'marginal'?

@daaronr
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daaronr commented Mar 24, 2023

probabilityOfSuccess = 0.1 to 0.5 # 1% to 50%.

Should read

probabilityOfSuccess = 0.1 to 0.5 # 10% to 50%.

10% vs 1%

@NunoSempere
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NunoSempere commented Mar 27, 2023 •
edited

Can you explain what this does to make it more 'marginal'?

Nothing, seems like the same model. This should have been a look at either Rikers or at reducing the prison population on the Los Angeles county (or some populous county), but I can't find the original model.

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