initialPrisonPopulation = 1.8M to 2.5M # Data for 2022 prison population has not yet been published
reductionInPrisonPopulation = 0.01 to 0.2
badnessOfPrisonInQALYs = 0.2 to 5 # 80% as good as being alive to 5 times worse than living is good
counterfactualAccelerationInYears = 5 to 20
probabilityOfSuccess = 0.1 to 0.5 # 1% to 50%.
counterfactualImpactOfGrant = 0.5 to 1 ## other funders, labor cost of activism
estimateQALYs = leftTruncate(
initialPrisonPopulation *
reductionInPrisonPopulation *
badnessOfPrisonInQALYs *
counterfactualAccelerationInYears *
probabilityOfSuccess *
counterfactualImpactOfGrant
, 0)
cost = 200M to 2B
costPerQALY = leftTruncate(cost / estimateQALYs, 0)
costPerQALY
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