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@pukpr
Created June 7, 2024 17:40
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Integral/Derivative adjustment
if MLR_On or not (Forcing_Only or Is_Minimum_Entropy) then -- MLR_On
if Climate_Trend then
Secular_Trend := 1.0;
else
Secular_Trend := 0.0;
end if;
if Derivative then
DR(Data_Records'First).Value := Data_Records(Data_Records'First).Value;
for I in Data_Records'First+1 .. Data_Records'Last loop
DR(I).Value := DR(I-1).Value + Data_Records(I).Value;
end loop;
else
if Partial then
DR(Data_Records'First) := Data_Records(Data_Records'First);
for I in Data_Records'First+1 .. Data_Records'Last loop
DR(I).Value := Data_Records(I-1).Value + D.B.ShiftT*(Data_Records(I).Value - Data_Records(I-1).Value);
end loop;
else
DR := Data_Records;
end if;
end if;
DR := Annual_Add(DR, -1.0);
Regression_Factors (Data_Records => Excluded(DR), -- Time series
--First => First,
--Last => Last, -- Training Interval
Forcing => Excluded(Forcing), -- Value @ Time
NM => NM + NH, -- # modulations
DBLT => M, --D.B.LT,
DALTAP => MAP, --D.A.LTAP,
DALEVEL => D.A.LEVEL,
DAK0 => D.A.K0,
Secular_Trend => Secular_Trend,
Accel => Accel,
Singular => Singular
);
else
Singular := False;
end if;
CorrCoeff := 0.0;
Pareto_Scale := 1.0;
if Pareto then
Pareto_Start := 1;
else
Pareto_Start := NH+1;
end if;
for Pareto_Index in Pareto_Start .. NH+1 loop
if Forcing_Only or (Is_Minimum_Entropy and not MLR_On ) then
Model := Forcing;
else
Model := LTE(Forcing => Forcing,
Wave_Numbers => M(1 .. NM - 1 + Pareto_Index), --D.B.Lt(1..NM),
Amp_Phase => MAP(1 .. NM - 1 + Pareto_Index), --D.A.LTAP,
Offset => D.A.level,
K0 => D.A.K0,
Trend => Secular_Trend,
Accel => Accel,
NonLin => NonLin+D.B.IR); -- D.LT GEM.LTE.LT0
if Derivative then
for I in reverse Model'First+1 .. Model'Last loop
Model(I).Value := Model(I).Value - Model(I-1).Value;
end loop;
Model(Model'First).Value := Model(Model'First+1).Value;
end if;
if Partial then
for I in Model'First+1 .. Model'Last loop
Impulses(I).Value := Model(I).Value - Model(I-1).Value;
end loop;
Impulses(Model'First).Value := 0.0;
for I in Model'Range loop
Model(I).Value := Model(I).Value + D.B.ShiftT* Impulses(I).Value;
end loop;
end if;
Model := Annual_Add(Model);
end if;
@pukpr
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pukpr commented Jun 10, 2024

NINO34 raw

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.el_nino.sst.dat

image

Status: 6 13 0.84674 0.56449 # 700

  -9.24492348132 :offset:
 118.36682487433 :bg:
   0.15366736572 :impA:
   7.29044631495 :impB:
   6.68981564262 :impC:
  -0.55092276922:delA:
   0.22012642039:delB:
  -0.00186887474:asym:
  -0.56573158029:ann1:
 -11.55925193234:ann2:
  -0.21720278213:sem1:
   5.31201498345:sem2:
   0.00021391657:year:
  -0.02143070860:IR:
  -0.00839420562 :mA:
  -0.00371994155 :mP:
  -0.41568558147 :shiftT:
   0.50275872181 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02529871070,  -15.78407918866,  1, -14445,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04381006107,    3.47561594433,  2, -3418,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06300517382,  -12.01868400014,  3,  2679,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01879267343,   -0.39343690862,  4, -2707,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06949876601,    2.35930131951,  5, -52494,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.26108654757,   -0.88015897208,  6, -5076,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -3.07930682854,    1.27225844423,  7, -23169,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.08078750353,   -6.47025004839,  8, -3583,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.19110064588,  -43.92570307317,  9, -250,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.17117231503,    7.95071954802,  10,  30313,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.16018915617,   -0.12757944328,  11,  5079,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.24250890904,    2.54914804108,  12, -23,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.03732381553,   -4.42018589233,  13, -20820,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,   -0.12437924930,    1.00038331769,  14, -1387,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.05341910111,    4.72784241773,  15,  1066,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.10943054365,    3.85338394463,  16, -1614,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.01091156906 :trend:
  -0.00002766868 :accel:
   0.01854308920 :K0:
 -20.77759774167 :level:
   0.24522943793,    0.18444994473,    0.11618080973 0
   0.43975436992,    0.24554453444,    1.57385983813-1
  -0.59494006858,    0.27432705209,   -1.25652383056 1
  -6.54434075433,    0.39185529369,    2.71476988877 11
  -4.75952054860,    0.48872226044,    1.37199942002 8
  -3.56964041145,    0.32449263962,   -0.13091838293 6
  -5.94940068575,    0.49205638006,   -1.55182733405 10
  -1.18988013715,    0.40323946726,   -2.29921612793 2
  -5.35446061718,    0.35156027841,   -2.03985485817 9
  -4.16458048003,    0.33356904326,    2.21522502615 7
  -1.78482020573,    0.21602292959,    2.12712857271 3

CC 0.5726560054 0.8469605012 3 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl_dtw1_from_iodpt5bHarm

alternate symmetry, doesn't work as well with AMO

image

Resetting 3 34%

  -9.38700632927 :offset:
 105.81521700467 :bg:
   0.04824169000 :impA:
   7.64832321606 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
  -0.51791697430:delA:
   0.21893829197:delB:
   0.00101739965:asym:
  -0.51840308611:ann1:
   7.39350028918:ann2:
  -0.22514801046:sem1:
  -0.79139243005:sem2:
   0.00015938016:year:
   0.13291669951:IR:
  -0.01664149092 :mA:
  -0.00536286076 :mP:
  -0.50689676656 :shiftT:
   0.47166132584 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02339071076,  -16.24388786381,  1, -13363,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04300093142,    3.55920354958,  2, -3357,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06135216175,  -12.47311185995,  3,  2607,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01955719465,   -0.47690268609,  4, -2814,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06869311855,    2.49271745532,  5, -51886,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.15444178063,   -0.96423601043,  6, -4952,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.59445965649,    1.54186318762,  7, -4553,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.04485354098,   13.55149869926,  8, -2034,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.23690537524,  -44.08046167945,  9, -286,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.03929863595,    3.70178355552,  10,  6882,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.06679056224,    0.52099732718,  11,  2059,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.44267727870,    2.33270102704,  12,  40,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.05325458597,    4.78162869371,  13, -29664,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.12804459919,    1.33288432911,  14,  1225,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.10111075689,   -7.15204584417,  15,  2108,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.07954657107,   -3.40236868902,  16, -1200,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.01744697908 :trend:
  -0.00007079893 :accel:
   0.11950820168 :K0:
 -33.26679716784 :level:
  -0.59193336169,    0.27916296180,   -2.68382755461 1
  -1.18386672337,    0.66856613114,   -2.70586720641 2
  -3.55160017011,    0.79105486232,    0.54761470256 6
 -10.65480051033,    0.38416158584,   -1.78948914927 18

CC 0.6537863140 0.8332559200 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl2

image

Resetting 7 61%

  -9.38701889581 :offset:
 105.96660642898 :bg:
   0.03152741805 :impA:
   7.66553126476 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
  -0.51850232541:delA:
   0.23034549217:delB:
   0.00053944422:asym:
  -0.50747274802:ann1:
   7.44127054145:ann2:
  -0.22951223714:sem1:
  -0.78544342551:sem2:
   0.00015944366:year:
   0.11438883163:IR:
  -0.01636675463 :mA:
   0.00527976663 :mP:
  -0.51545639504 :shiftT:
   0.46706354894 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02324540228,  -16.26409623336,  1, -13281,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04330740410,    3.56032644989,  2, -3380,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06139665111,  -12.47373798148,  3,  2608,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01959708098,   -0.46646852008,  4, -2819,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06872132002,    2.49370650296,  5, -51908,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.15422489319,   -0.96421348045,  6, -4951,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.59671197166,    1.55073865775,  7, -4570,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.04196484189,   13.57991136788,  8, -1909,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.23702517196,  -44.09264851535,  9, -286,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.03654207067,    3.81668598648,  10,  6393,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.06804147511,    0.54568195392,  11,  2100,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.44501893070,    2.33604551506,  12,  41,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.05264688023,    4.78168797809,  13, -29327,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.12893957055,    1.33271052261,  14,  1234,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.09617758306,   -7.14753718795,  15,  2000,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.07955246022,   -3.41400073687,  16, -1200,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00919924449 :trend:
  -0.00002353872 :accel:
   0.11755963771 :K0:
 -17.58449068436 :level:
  -0.59125351279,    0.27453760180,   -2.89260169857 1
  -1.18250702558,    0.69863348409,   -2.68568986887 2
  -3.54752107674,    0.82194359982,    0.55481506745 6
 -10.64256323021,    0.37655410146,   -1.91679380545 18

CC 0.6425129135 0.8497538270 6 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank

Tried fitting w/o annual terms and then added those terms
image

  -9.38705417086 :offset:
 105.81194836771 :bg:
   0.04111058885 :impA:
   8.41349054685 :impB:
   6.50675247698 :impC:
  -0.51916854208:delA:
   0.23034549217:delB:
   0.00094821639:asym:
   0.50010377122:ann1:
  -1.97307836178:ann2:
  -0.22989893551:sem1:
  -0.72284199087:sem2:
   0.00015964232:year:
   0.07173608161:IR:
  -0.01161068311 :mA:
   0.00527205930 :mP:
  -0.50088085726 :shiftT:
   0.46059383253 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02346211327,  -16.26440063245,  1, -13404,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04326407435,    3.56026354592,  2, -3377,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06135710921,  -12.47581843770,  3,  2607,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01959219651,   -0.47072652393,  4, -2818,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06881189715,    2.49457122809,  5, -51976,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.15631713271,   -0.96419751138,  6, -4954,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.59634235631,    1.54628233304,  7, -4568,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.04126068504,   13.58931616933,  8, -1879,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.23784176984,  -44.09383490184,  9, -287,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.03614139878,    3.82000285636,  10,  6322,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.07319729538,    0.54875246770,  11,  2267,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.44610039420,    2.35227991958,  12,  41,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.05132724470,    4.78019999937,  13, -28594,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.12962004796,    1.33202847331,  14,  1241,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.09501822267,   -7.12426930309,  15,  1975,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.08103892963,   -3.42192488890,  16, -1221,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00957281652 :trend:
  -0.00002536877 :accel:
   0.11037593673 :K0:
 -18.29290278954 :level:
  -0.59235483748,    0.27465076513,   -2.89350700271 1
  -1.18470967496,    0.70401967602,   -2.71167117316 2
  -3.55412902489,    0.83416299994,    0.44495429999 6
 -10.66238707467,    0.41528577072,   -2.13023450759 18

CC 0.6371339820 0.8550159795 2 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank_wait_annual

image

  -9.38705842765 :offset:
 105.80429175349 :bg:
   0.03285661333 :impA:
   8.42648196597 :impB:
   6.70341270977 :impC:
  -0.51914291379:delA:
   0.23034549217:delB:
   0.00093439442:asym:
   0.50893206546:ann1:
  -1.98137835337:ann2:
  -0.22936108041:sem1:
  -0.75813991541:sem2:
   0.00015966422:year:
   0.06344425792:IR:
  -0.01180180183 :mA:
   0.00527166990 :mP:
  -0.50315613383 :shiftT:
   0.46044033764 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02346002893,  -16.26420805268,  1, -13403,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04326280523,    3.56033976271,  2, -3377,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06135380115,  -12.47633748982,  3,  2607,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01958956023,   -0.47068371588,  4, -2818,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06885754911,    2.49498014929,  5, -52010,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.15628070107,   -0.96417821939,  6, -4954,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.59625105289,    1.54624178820,  7, -4567,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.04133409552,   13.58809856380,  8, -1882,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.23737558770,  -44.09460451299,  9, -286,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.03612565131,    3.82135574537,  10,  6319,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.07325784575,    0.54997765762,  11,  2269,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.44601972485,    2.35239558227,  12,  41,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.05134250923,    4.77752578944,  13, -28603,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.12980887220,    1.33146699240,  14,  1243,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.09472988777,   -7.12387791223,  15,  1969,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.08109058653,   -3.42227509233,  16, -1222,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00965466553 :trend:
  -0.00002591553 :accel:
   0.10315680768 :K0:
 -18.44553414094 :level:
   0.59219059404,    0.27637154863,   -0.27119048739 1
   1.18438118808,    0.70496605132,   -0.42639877344 2
   3.55314356425,    0.83589058177,    2.70732738025 6
  10.65943069276,    0.43049157459,   -0.95823725188 18

CC 0.6459781133 0.8565671573 5 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank_wait_annual

AMO

image

Status: 3 2 0.77389 0.75768 # 200

  -9.39087953347 :offset:
 106.71586138455 :bg:
   0.00037123115 :impA:
  -0.01738950280 :impB:
   8.02852396364 :impC:
  -0.52171207634:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
   0.00098400765:asym:
   0.04254114658:ann1:
   2.78898421711:ann2:
   0.01225937668:sem1:
  -1.08930638445:sem2:
   0.00015292185:year:
  -0.60837842240:IR:
  -0.01642180722 :mA:
  -0.00497933255 :mP:
   0.28069619898 :shiftT:
   0.47420092377 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.01729738592,   21.59222246201,  1, -9908,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04658712695,    3.70946597109,  2, -3629,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06084383373,  -12.59401264010,  3,  2584,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01682757714,   -0.37084866845,  4, -2435,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06985141094,    2.59968345409,  5, -52760,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.16985507551,   -0.91917729380,  6,  4770,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -2.77027496680,   -1.54403856125,  7, -20854,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.09295753497,   11.81228929568,  8, -4108,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.29089975017,  -35.17282253854,  9, -328,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.06417379954,   -5.38764314654,  10,  11302,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.06334368750,    0.79308266091,  11,  1948,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.31513527306,    1.65520967813,  12,  0,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.14318121291,    6.20240643965,  13, -79588,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.26047135101,    1.41904295727,  14,  2595,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.05261335798,    9.02838590798,  15,  1049,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.20891621206,   -3.30808918542,  16, -2990,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00589325504 :trend:
   0.00003888417 :accel:
  -0.01309799679 :K0:
  11.26582891765 :level:
  -0.06215902833,    0.08313116757,    1.72740304784 0
  -1.80693225052,    0.15792064939,   -1.69404348758 1

CC 0.7576841242 0.7738929862 3 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore bi_amoo_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank_wait_annualCC

image

Status: 7 2 0.71354 0.23476 # 3200

  -9.46736802463 :offset:
 106.74033263448 :bg:
   0.03245689974 :impA:
   0.81244522861 :impB:
   8.14201432122 :impC:
  -0.51670284817:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
   0.00202612188:asym:
   0.06677005407:ann1:
  -3.52175280141:ann2:
   0.05036319123:sem1:
  -7.62147028265:sem2:
   0.00015502344:year:
  -0.00000962728:IR:
  -0.01762384352 :mA:
  -0.00495469367 :mP:
   0.00834050508 :shiftT:
   0.76040929825 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,    0.01540903835,   20.89858587695,  1,  8637,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.03599723650,    3.62973246513,  2, -2827,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.07018506784,   -6.29898188990,  3,  2996,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01301773947,   -0.42039152351,  4, -1906,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.07151330718,   -2.57452433821,  5, -54012,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.15905435384,   -0.97276572736,  6,  4757,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.59299531680,   -1.54304094688,  7,  4342,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.03770365047,   13.20744567299,  8, -1726,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.34088862561,  -34.12382657129,  9, -367,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.09968720117,   -6.32753199795,  10,  17612,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.09544024529,    0.75533224211,  11,  2986,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.41328555435,    1.73652553683,  12,  31,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.14424603533,    6.75979704577,  13, -80179,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.39787365132,    0.81853859923,  14,  4017,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.19605446954,   10.32893698864,  15,  4181,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.22426445806,   -2.39043266768,  16, -3202,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00666620172 :trend:
   0.00004603040 :accel:
   0.05722147682 :K0:
  12.61891465694 :level:
   2.72661579879,    0.14474125110,    2.87034189479 2
  -0.47876632514,    0.04156385413,    1.88454510389 0
   1.61573079409,    0.03624822339,   -1.53576343127 1
   3.23146158818,    0.04348128922,   -0.46164934250 2

DTW 0.3812248910 0.7135481254 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1

image

Status: 4 2 0.67706 0.74488 # 100

  -9.46675025169 :offset:
 108.96240394026 :bg:
   0.09212693403 :impA:
   1.12728743380 :impB:
   7.55261451652 :impC:
  -0.52404942752:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
   0.00203529199:asym:
   0.14411410881:ann1:
   5.19433996937:ann2:
   0.13625058261:sem1:
  -6.54209134322:sem2:
   0.00015681881:year:
   0.00000688018:IR:
  -0.01669680947 :mA:
  -0.00505185870 :mP:
   0.00369615883 :shiftT:
   0.75005529624 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.01572582230,   20.83770439967,  1, -9017,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.03796600675,    3.68430694975,  2, -2976,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06973595826,   -6.29175903413,  3,  2976,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01338094011,   -0.41703786546,  4, -1957,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06974485021,   -2.68239450294,  5, -52679,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.15253597672,   -0.92509176282,  6,  4749,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.58878710568,   -1.54385872173,  7,  4311,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.08246390956,   13.45931148708,  8, -3656,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.29217490741,  -34.07622130040,  9, -329,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.09580544185,   -6.40424228940,  10,  16922,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.08679538172,    0.72919180700,  11,  2706,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.30054068641,    1.72063968263,  12, -5,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.15731118234,    7.33116304457,  13, -87432,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.44081209724,    0.84966870649,  14,  4461,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.20456929714,   10.32443138194,  15,  4367,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.26804069555,   -2.34032254304,  16, -3808,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00464396894 :trend:
   0.00004738947 :accel:
   0.00718263135 :K0:
   8.44506674348 :level:
   2.74005489412,    0.24193473727,    1.58009875793-2
  -0.39671445655,    0.14190000766,   -0.94126086913 0
  -1.80668706350,    0.12976327276,   -1.92959237169 1
  -3.61337412700,    0.63108206551,    2.15846159496 2

DTW 0.7401996225 0.6772586010 6 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> $env:CLIMATE_INDEX=".\nino34_knmi_start_blank.dat"

image

@pukpr
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Author

pukpr commented Jun 10, 2024

image

Status: 2 2 0.71666 0.53546 # 36100

  -9.49430961133 :offset:
 107.99707997342 :bg:
   0.00876526197 :impA:
   1.45793828565 :impB:
   8.13649198117 :impC:
  -0.52515609298:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
  -0.00197129655:asym:
  -0.06066918960:ann1:
  -0.34380287868:ann2:
  -0.04647292492:sem1:
  -4.09754393296:sem2:
   0.00015456976:year:
   0.00000000000:IR:
  -0.00632078066 :mA:
   0.00468780170 :mP:
  -0.29092326747 :shiftT:
   0.72328512748 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.06606166534,    6.24824283868,  1, -37559,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.01361703510,    3.59322591465,  2, -1131,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.02182189840,   -6.24591279173,  3,  863,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.02255456721,   -0.08619990474,  4, -3229,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.07036661734,   -2.60161133346,  5, -53148,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.23615225704,   -0.82040098573,  6,  4847,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.59129547606,   -1.53920103590,  7,  4330,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.20571790854,   13.14966663558,  8, -8970,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.40094899308,  -21.07490729046,  9, -415,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.07571791861,   -6.02882653724,  10,  13353,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.08246259648,    0.67924117669,  11,  2566,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,   -0.33382944608,    1.53426880633,  12, -206,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.22675747898,    7.77305916098,  13, -125985,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.40588740230,    0.74306747567,  14,  4100,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.19313579271,   10.72007661965,  15,  4117,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.35855021599,   -1.90099072329,  16, -5060,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00846814175 :trend:
   0.00005812951 :accel:
   0.05739730935 :K0:
  16.08236473832 :level:
   0.84886246115,    0.08570407103,    0.54790376789 0
   2.43585430305,    0.10440273221,   -1.88868611614-1
  -1.04327553241,    0.06535248710,   -1.77948954468 0
  -2.75037945776,    0.10114024225,    3.09561773580 1
  -5.50075891553,    0.09065145861,   -0.86726469022 2

DTW 0.5354787181 0.7166651618 2 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_2c

image

Status: 1 2 0.70410 0.57907 # 300

  -9.50477795353 :offset:
 108.02227281963 :bg:
   0.04955762090 :impA:
  -0.46633970795 :impB:
   7.58338745713 :impC:
  -0.53516265708:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
  -0.00101127322:asym:
  -0.19993685254:ann1:
   1.70826630084:ann2:
  -0.11035645138:sem1:
  -3.20406005086:sem2:
   0.00015196456:year:
   0.00000000000:IR:
  -0.00567777815 :mA:
  -0.00463071853 :mP:
  -0.42629302700 :shiftT:
   0.76030626580 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.06821250835,    6.24157519716,  1, -38779,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.01164336353,    3.60409679783,  2, -982,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.02170001726,   -6.24862543257,  3,  857,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.02283331292,   -0.09295839134,  4, -3268,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06904187498,   -2.61062827012,  5, -52149,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.23742297598,   -0.81971306710,  6,  4849,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.58769767448,   -1.53589414381,  7,  4303,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.23981849867,   13.12537983770,  8, -10440,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.35622222461,  -21.48783964732,  9, -379,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.06346496663,   -5.88087647358,  10,  11176,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.08262896583,    0.69542446619,  11,  2572,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,   -0.32953415060,    1.56889599872,  12, -204,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.20222371351,    7.26683094949,  13, -112365,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.34082035389,    0.78406453903,  14,  3427,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.17890901619,   10.73107982604,  15,  3807,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.33382303800,   -1.65497256440,  16, -4718,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00717079941 :trend:
   0.00006164390 :accel:
  -0.01389877698 :K0:
  13.20311670257 :level:
   7.08635238925,    0.25055295755,   -1.91249817081-3
   1.93961402361,    0.23530343230,   -1.25713501516-1
   2.50136566331,    0.23692725249,   -0.88071212716-1
  -1.03483009973,    0.39063480789,   -0.17604514687 0
  -2.81722164323,    0.40685891418,    1.55294210409 1
  -5.63444328647,    0.51840011649,    2.85330367434 2

DTW 0.6024094198 0.7046277136 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_nino34_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_3

image

  -9.50468874666 :offset:
 108.03761278492 :bg:
   0.01284900150 :impA:
  -0.04674888377 :impB:
   7.53272536572 :impC:
  -0.53517863944:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
  -0.00069985892:asym:
  -0.19467906071:ann1:
   1.71610715115:ann2:
  -0.13045510928:sem1:
  -3.21772235526:sem2:
   0.00015197154:year:
   0.00000000000:IR:
  -0.00515867735 :mA:
  -0.00463048698 :mP:
  -0.43369806623 :shiftT:
   0.76417783845 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.06814987528,    6.24172126857,  1, -38743,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.01170010264,    3.60436195583,  2, -986,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.02185412915,   -6.25104618500,  3,  864,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.02283849984,   -0.09274758847,  4, -3269,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06904450096,   -2.61349369819,  5, -52151,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.23639733065,   -0.81971748933,  6,  4847,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.58773194590,   -1.53574341430,  7,  4303,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.24359036205,   13.19786252604,  8, -10603,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.35819253724,  -21.48942634702,  9, -381,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.06357320976,   -5.87128501515,  10,  11196,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.08270239414,    0.69649504601,  11,  2574,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,   -0.31778197305,    1.57649154785,  12, -201,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.20366652005,    7.28183249479,  13, -113166,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.33908924937,    0.79942050542,  14,  3409,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.17271425578,   10.72312869882,  15,  3671,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.33600541303,   -1.64327374843,  16, -4748,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00696871626 :trend:
   0.00006099427 :accel:
  -0.01577612796 :K0:
  12.80856514452 :level:
  -7.09070676832,    0.29919137741,   -1.34198150592 3
  -1.93875060633,    0.22759523896,   -1.90547889908 1
   2.50020388390,    0.22919300161,   -0.91932567388-1
   1.03643391183,    0.38861411520,   -2.97842080402 0
  -2.81434614863,    0.39199881891,    1.45435635501 1
  -5.62869229727,    0.52747224057,    2.71372614610 2

DTW 0.6001577864 0.7143065330 5 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_nino34_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_3b

image

10 cycles of AMO -> NINO34 -> AMO fitting of 2 minutes each.

image
Status: 6 2 0.64623 0.40609 # 2400

  -9.47316781591 :offset:
 103.96939618655 :bg:
   0.00117463871 :impA:
  -4.59290899029 :impB:
   1.18254330435 :impC:
   0.53100678153:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
  -0.00155381074:asym:
   0.02446254606:ann1:
  -1.94694879100:ann2:
   0.08816795902:sem1:
   0.01163823648:sem2:
  -0.00012848194:year:
   0.00000000000:IR:
  -0.00000000000 :mA:
  -0.00403312138 :mP:
  -0.19404939764 :shiftT:
   0.65822842432 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.05655947011,    5.39181887769,  1, -32171,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.01328099884,    3.91983881985,  2, -1106,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.01871040300,   -6.27908017145,  3,  725,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01781758282,   -0.15997096570,  4, -2572,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.07535615609,   -2.61741194932,  5, -56910,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.64263689666,   -0.88607396786,  6,  5322,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.60749323861,   -1.52534288233,  7,  4451,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.22587493125,    7.04084711734,  8, -9839,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.38892386025,   21.45512711718,  9, -405,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,   -0.29322222485,  -10.98490389190,  10, -52199,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.10928671789,    0.60848723302,  11,  3433,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,   -0.32004441385,    1.36517459402,  12, -201,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.20600898694,    8.31178853939,  13, -114467,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.40673564745,    0.93325341014,  14,  4109,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.29599434048,  -15.52477191965,  15,  6363,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.31840844437,   -1.46294946927,  16, -4504,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00822914891 :trend:
   0.00007959573 :accel:
   7.19682042957 :K0:
  27.08205762276 :level:
   1.82171701707,    0.28087053101,   -2.87582885286 0
  -5.24214067187,    0.40702662651,   -2.62088481273 1
   1.22590490131,    0.17351821598,    0.91224243463 0
   0.00977267950,  119.13106078723,   -3.04043051737 0
  -7.57419028975,    0.27737190619,    0.46531788364 1
 -22.72257086926,    0.26467576089,    1.14038642181 3

DTW 0.4290933301 0.6465208776 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> notepad .\2run.ps1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_4

image

@pukpr
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Author

pukpr commented Jun 10, 2024

image

  -9.49237815896 :offset:
 109.72346214669 :bg:
   0.33543335753 :impA:
  -2.91618453647 :impB:
   7.28672859532 :impC:
  -0.52509169281:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
   0.00015797556:asym:
   0.53656106892:ann1:
  -4.46041461453:ann2:
   0.22352409657:sem1:
   2.75374471525:sem2:
   0.00015014874:year:
  -0.08433804318:IR:
  -0.01596806040 :mA:
   0.00478511504 :mP:
  -0.58786567229 :shiftT:
   0.83290647104 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.06896815690,   -6.25118909634,  1, -39207,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.01549609064,    3.94758697494,  2, -1274,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.02131127827,   -6.26605335971,  3,  840,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01969771265,   -0.14443727452,  4, -2833,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06976747815,   -2.59568169730,  5, -52696,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.24714340245,   -0.84926446394,  6,  4860,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.59170113274,   -1.54482347185,  7,  4333,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.19461630136,   12.54234599630,  8, -8491,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.39062653938,  -27.53474882757,  9, -406,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.05394376766,   -5.68336564078,  10,  9485,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.07732116597,    0.69635675757,  11,  2400,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.29629565883,    1.85305908358,  12, -6,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.24404493592,    7.85166323602,  13, -135582,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.40078906581,    0.74551621417,  14,  4047,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.24868057250,   10.40560811360,  15,  5330,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.33534449226,   -1.49127335560,  16, -4739,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00988632671 :trend:
  -0.00002842984 :accel:
  -0.13245917018 :K0:
 -19.09516352996 :level:
   0.89495320122,    0.28787328253,   -2.55144827122 0
  -1.74332063933,    0.48126143557,   -2.46973677129 1
  -0.43657782927,    0.47053943975,    2.77234373617 0
  -2.84636072175,    0.45916342194,   -2.64473546455 1
 -14.23180360877,    0.43219583081,    1.48486077853 5

DTW 0.7880304552 0.7330654785 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_pdo_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_2

@pukpr
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pukpr commented Jun 10, 2024

Update to AMO here
https://gist.github.com/pukpr/84d52ab15c54674360e7d8eb57c52852?permalink_comment_id=5084244#gistcomment-5084244

image

Status: 2 2 0.75033 0.35095 # 5700

  -9.46736735374 :offset:
 106.99236340821 :bg:
   0.00316432712 :impA:
   0.38199626205 :impB:
   7.52118351231 :impC:
  -0.51668996672:delA:
   0.23034475713:delB:
   0.00019321357:asym:
  -0.06721981644:ann1:
  -0.50178586235:ann2:
  -0.02422659289:sem1:
   0.71161108902:sem2:
   0.00015941292:year:
  -0.12849985161:IR:
  -0.01761246899 :mA:
  -0.00496781612 :mP:
   0.10462905914 :shiftT:
   0.75668717823 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,    0.01434153973,   20.85839318560,  1,  8032,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.03513496590,    3.61925739541,  2, -2761,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.07044107292,   -6.30176340333,  3,  3007,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01336777293,   -0.40790189299,  4, -1955,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.07164213265,   -2.50135234512,  5, -54110,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.16328471814,   -0.97946837241,  6,  4762,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.59417661524,   -1.54382998458,  7,  4351,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.07077028983,   13.46966189982,  8, -3151,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.37243441908,  -34.06744582968,  9, -392,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.12151400863,   -6.33543499003,  10,  21490,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.10247919356,    0.76037957577,  11,  3213,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.42562939911,    1.81692154351,  12,  35,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.11865446904,    6.43275316849,  13, -65971,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.35470994858,    0.93122762940,  14,  3570,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.15993677912,   10.18790619345,  15,  3392,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.22275315674,   -2.60328389153,  16, -3181,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00617550899 :trend:
   0.00004165818 :accel:
   0.04828296096 :K0:
  11.68064498874 :level:
   2.74416639768,    0.13855286836,    2.76994114030 2
  -0.31932662299,    0.04460204491,   -2.67284980184 0
   1.56530801391,    0.03430099029,   -1.90306133456 1
   3.13061602781,    0.01536026166,   -1.55978760212 2
   4.69592404172,    0.09127814150,    1.80695595221 3

DTW 0.3509729249 0.7503616995 2 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1plus1

For PDO, start on a different month, shifts the modulation

image

  -9.46655228585 :offset:
 105.66475663404 :bg:
   0.06047647117 :impA:
   1.22059399598 :impB:
   9.17167106703 :impC:
  -0.51759495684:delA:
   0.75000000000:delB:
   0.00005931219:asym:
   0.39947731344:ann1:
   1.50292233581:ann2:
  -0.34616812582:sem1:
   1.43959291720:sem2:
   0.00016093233:year:
  -0.65755711548:IR:
  -0.02511743617 :mA:
  -0.00494696839 :mP:
  -0.20243994827 :shiftT:
   0.75636204391 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,    0.01332491497,   20.79234097428,  1,  7456,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.03519066526,    3.67138006689,  2, -2766,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06970964175,   -6.30685101125,  3,  2975,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01190361107,   -0.44494679057,  4, -1752,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.07196340454,   -2.54434342971,  5, -54352,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.13829846754,   -0.99010710881,  6,  4733,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,    0.60310155701,   -1.54406892905,  7,  4418,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.08326679779,   12.98166339880,  8, -3690,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.34260432225,  -33.67151632915,  9, -369,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.10593153047,   -6.44045638480,  10,  18722,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.10362640878,    0.78348944976,  11,  3250,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.41900945760,    1.79235047792,  12,  33,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.14157403241,    6.92961932027,  13, -78695,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.34948693601,    0.84973180197,  14,  3516,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.15473669298,    9.78384198287,  15,  3279,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.21350649485,   -2.40947316674,  16, -3053,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00588250917 :trend:
  -0.00003088970 :accel:
  -0.10158539216 :K0:
 -11.13836951554 :level:
  -2.71980382673,    0.59734291838,    2.76994107867-2
   0.20135679453,    0.12701094995,   -0.42322058311 0
   1.51503896181,    0.54719367973,   -2.03350426927 1
   3.03007792362,    0.24294691771,   -0.31398796835 2
   4.54511688543,    0.52944281732,   -0.06317193400 3

DTW 0.6286634721 0.7670845497 5 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1plus1shift1

@pukpr
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Author

pukpr commented Jun 11, 2024

image

  -9.38659005946 :offset:
 105.43167257944 :bg:
   0.00000000000 :impA:
   0.00000000000 :impB:
   0.00000000000 :impC:
  -0.52157443526:delA:
   0.21893944285:delB:
   0.00166117356:asym:
  -0.18672027903:ann1:
  -6.54955827266:ann2:
  -0.15380623217:sem1:
  -1.11067898060:sem2:
   0.00015280995:year:
   0.26974972620:IR:
  -0.01509759786 :mA:
   0.00528129749 :mP:
  -0.50550595169 :shiftT:
   0.44963350761 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02239916080,  -16.27219314091,  1, -12801,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04430457937,    3.54551103650,  2, -3456,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06125662291,  -12.48302302974,  3,  2602,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01949488432,   -0.45083784963,  4, -2805,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06894759205,    2.51231091927,  5, -52078,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.15608272291,   -0.96134456876,  6, -4954,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.63460073362,    1.57377823062,  7, -4854,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.03226984391,   13.39280658020,  8, -1491,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.22358927551,  -44.06520071976,  9, -275,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.03909647154,    4.13892941302,  10,  6847,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.11497494761,    0.90090860829,  11,  3617,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.44560731995,    2.33491106408,  12,  41,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.05071815858,    4.75481692905,  13, -28256,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.12878291202,    1.40644982563,  14,  1233,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.09433719186,   -6.96142373596,  15,  1960,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.09286865549,   -3.35014673963,  16, -1385,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00287378457 :trend:
   0.00005813181 :accel:
   0.06720713684 :K0:
   5.16632787133 :level:
  -0.58555525280,    0.19118857929,   -2.73695319869 1
  -1.17111050559,    0.46015091345,   -2.84177538441 2
  -3.51333151677,    0.60264829747,    0.38092823393 6
 -10.53999455031,    0.33424736473,   -2.37340472622 18

CC 0.4609988691 0.8295812067 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> notepad .\enso_opt.exe.resp
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> .\ev

Name Value


CLIMATE_INDEX .\nino4_noaa_1870.dat
DTW 1
LOCKT false
MODULATION true
NLOOP 20
PART true
TRIGGER 0.9

Annual with a slight biennial asymmetry, enough to genrate the AMO long-periof

PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino4_raw_part_1920_1980_excl2

image

  -9.39314959407 :offset:
 111.32837724481 :bg:
   0.01130917881 :impA:
   7.85512482758 :impB:
   7.35163431947 :impC:
  -0.51705678879:delA:
   0.21893829197:delB:
  -0.14768340511:asym:
   0.08823085546:ann1:
  -9.25796090786:ann2:
   0.06164770501:sem1:
  -1.60451921887:sem2:
   0.00016823091:year:
  -0.14441813258:IR:
  -0.01747956617 :mA:
  -0.00510824186 :mP:
  -0.56005379496 :shiftT:
   0.44937986033 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02327963327,  -16.26484560492,  1, -13300,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04315032267,    3.54310577590,  2, -3369,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06144182306,  -12.35227847387,  3,  2610,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01990631507,   -0.46967128839,  4, -2862,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.07230879504,    2.46122710861,  5, -54612,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,    4.20033275582,   -0.94354951648,  6,  4805,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.59543538469,    1.54182430303,  7, -4561,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.05443592946,   15.73653539215,  8, -2447,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.28037658065,  -44.82954409466,  9, -320,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.07570323868,    2.26091251778,  10,  13351,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.06959642722,    0.62654423840,  11,  2150,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.45857444150,    2.36663361283,  12,  45,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.08807919614,   -4.19370767082,  13, -48997,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.11633438427,    1.42074107238,  14,  1104,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.12163119215,   -7.51218197417,  15,  2556,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.13762162642,   -3.03288339599,  16, -2004,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
  -0.00548061848 :trend:
   0.00003665375 :accel:
   0.05159463447 :K0:
  10.37681890996 :level:
  -0.58417651121,    0.07335464441,    3.05366148686 1
  -2.33670604482,    0.04571964711,    0.41721642636 4
  -3.50505906723,    0.07114419347,    2.02491330538 6
  -6.42594162326,    0.09605946895,   -2.79405158014 11

DTW 0.5599703565 0.7465738218 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_amo_raw_part_1920_1980_excl1b_asym1dtw3

PDO

image

 -12.59346263796 :offset:
 110.23809953393 :bg:
   0.06868629540 :impA:
   1.91621118209 :impB:
   6.96578433306 :impC:
  -0.51813665198:delA:
   0.21893829197:delB:
  -0.31504829457:asym:
   0.04471116162:ann1:
   0.43776703049:ann2:
   0.02856872033:sem1:
  -2.28896803084:sem2:
   0.00016684315:year:
   0.74598964529:IR:
  -0.02335642989 :mA:
   0.00501852307 :mP:
  -0.32233181867 :shiftT:
   0.42354811937 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02825952396,  -16.31126912001,  1, -16124,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04253896754,    3.57366876575,  2, -3322,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06613470946,  -12.36806391478,  3,  2817,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.02182066891,   -0.43868540546,  4, -3128,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06873100960,    2.48593307667,  5, -51915,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.26710298730,   -0.95164834002,  6, -5083,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.59245626287,    1.53843607803,  7, -4538,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.04338779338,   12.74379517710,  8, -1971,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.22685344489,  -44.29604772823,  9, -278,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.04107912340,    2.34304652566,  10,  7199,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.06218004436,    0.23177096144,  11,  1910,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.49518940370,    2.39430573791,  12,  57,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.04335330350,    4.39579253624,  13, -24168,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.14976003801,    1.38947703110,  14,  1450,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.12193594050,   -7.09370896775,  15,  2563,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.07808529261,   -4.45987973966,  16, -1180,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00000000000 :trend:
   0.00000000000 :accel:
  -0.05690756506 :K0:
   0.09995529235 :level:
   1.08433943226,    0.28169563678,   -1.67856521882 2
   0.58812493285,    0.09075862915,   -1.53006978490 1
  11.76249865693,    0.20174871291,    3.09515517247 20
   3.52874959708,    0.39607832818,   -2.27733159164 6
  10.58624879124,    0.76624787784,    2.87570019758 18

CC 0.5225781070 0.6633507608 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_pdo_raw_part_1920_1980_excl1b_asym1dtw3

@pukpr
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pukpr commented Jun 12, 2024

Extra high harmonic

image

.\nino34_knmi_start_blank.dat for Thread # 8 1
Catchup mode enabled:TRUE

  -9.38688555514 :offset:
 105.64345246511 :bg:
   0.05734680321 :impA:
   3.01872690552 :impB:
  12.90669438673 :impC:
  -0.51994107250:delA:
   0.21881111535:delB:
  -0.51779139137:asym:
  -0.12921329893:ann1:
   8.60186683693:ann2:
  -0.05252616304:sem1:
   0.17910996584:sem2:
   0.00016105141:year:
  -0.21308558972:IR:
  -0.01528839665 :mA:
   0.00538241793 :mP:
  -0.52593875784 :shiftT:
   0.47906625939 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02335689226,  -16.27034554866,  1, -13344,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04285514217,    3.55228256805,  2, -3346,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06145774885,  -12.47238819007,  3,  2611,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01958034730,   -0.49069665574,  4, -2817,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06924074952,    2.48881898582,  5, -52299,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.15572955856,   -0.96464005238,  6, -4953,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.59400940934,    1.53734365872,  7, -4550,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.04588601823,   13.58916999158,  8, -2078,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.23773931301,  -44.10220852494,  9, -287,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.03711707904,    3.61233774140,  10,  6495,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.06467716779,    0.56014062688,  11,  1991,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.43919393727,    2.36000569034,  12,  39,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.04880377513,    4.81649450548,  13, -27194,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.13223404763,    1.30015735049,  14,  1268,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.09173475541,   -7.12170714280,  15,  1903,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.08490458014,   -3.40118646425,  16, -1274,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00380590812 :trend:
   0.00000796061 :accel:
   0.09086708544 :K0:
  -7.69461291679 :level:
   0.59161573661,    0.29568422118,   -0.18474635780 1
   1.18323147322,    0.69704181615,   -0.42133645279 2
   3.54969441966,    0.75266351413,    2.71714731388 6
  10.64908325898,    0.41198308505,   -0.90993253699 18
 153.22847578199,    0.26728477420,    0.01394377949 259

DTW 0.6131801911 0.7817081388 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3

excluded
image

  -9.38689118723 :offset:
 105.67652811417 :bg:
   0.13153810119 :impA:
 -18.45727266410 :impB:
  12.89820510509 :impC:
  -0.51862602310:delA:
   0.21881111535:delB:
  -0.51778358862:asym:
  -0.19195103778:ann1:
   8.61042660640:ann2:
   0.19837540958:sem1:
   0.36897881357:sem2:
   0.00016144111:year:
  -0.45047513997:IR:
  -0.01402800800 :mA:
  -0.00545309083 :mP:
  -0.43462480671 :shiftT:
   0.12095879884 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02351385401,  -16.27125982768,  1, -13433,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04288700357,    3.55047529524,  2, -3349,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06156500624,  -12.47937521118,  3,  2616,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01941125618,   -0.52715546618,  4, -2793,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06805964023,    2.49904379959,  5, -51409,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.18477650630,   -0.96461828207,  6, -4987,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.58536596702,    1.55658053507,  7, -4485,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.04885726874,   13.75277454642,  8, -2207,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.25875252935,  -44.09141189586,  9, -303,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.04131489186,    3.26613204117,  10,  7241,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.05865656004,    0.44240113967,  11,  1796,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.43540489549,    2.35419947368,  12,  38,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.04416800046,    4.82934190333,  13, -24620,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.13462664037,    1.29782197617,  14,  1293,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.09167704313,   -7.10913391882,  15,  1902,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.08127619086,   -3.30254462450,  16, -1224,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00012719499 :trend:
  -0.00000617852 :accel:
   0.17845098581 :K0:
  -0.63487320249 :level:
   0.59300471091,    0.38699340129,    0.18825682514 1
   1.18600942181,    0.52810985758,   -0.11051974214 2
   3.55802826544,    0.31669154942,    2.68598190277 6
  10.67408479631,    0.34546879536,    0.04883882628 18
 153.58822012467,    0.25425588762,    1.80764856209 259

DTW 0.8003718688 0.6046423179 4 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3_excl

image

  -9.38675420574 :offset:
 105.43172304182 :bg:
   0.23021287293 :impA:
  -5.65048372583 :impB:
  13.03688698639 :impC:
  -0.51981693623:delA:
   0.21881111535:delB:
  -0.51630944293:asym:
  -0.11904625750:ann1:
   8.24631636771:ann2:
   0.08634351413:sem1:
   0.65525206907:sem2:
   0.00015778224:year:
  -0.49633060440:IR:
  -0.02035330823 :mA:
   0.00545437307 :mP:
  -0.40228834320 :shiftT:
   0.06124349551 :init:
---- Tidal ----
  27.32166155400,   -0.02399066670,  -16.27641734459,  1, -13704,  1.76356181782067E-04
  27.21222081500,   -0.04307280956,    3.55698323265,  2, -3363,  1.32018604870843E-03
  27.10365333842,    0.06162551076,  -12.48046747738,  3,  2619,  2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065,   -0.01944769202,   -0.56320805841,  4, -2798,  7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533,   -0.06681593313,    2.49855910214,  5, -50471,  1.32647102305794E-04
  27.55454988600,   -4.18385727863,   -0.96431884470,  6, -4986,  8.56291868681121E-02
  13.77727494300,   -0.58628302595,    1.44914906544,  7, -4492,  1.33483664215998E-02
   9.18484996200,   -0.05197055423,   13.67617805277,  8, -2341,  2.31927625303356E-03
  13.63341568476,   -0.25918174518,  -44.07106722530,  9, -303,  1.27459896645223E-01
  13.71880577217,    0.04457390903,    3.37052279011,  10,  7820,  5.62816955896931E-04
  27.09267692660,    0.05026747034,    0.04331332799,  11,  1525,  3.09295406008444E-03
  13.66083077700,    0.43278938413,    2.34295527660,  12,  37,  3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126,   -0.04178482787,    5.15921556671,  13, -23297,  1.80130389316582E-04
  13.60611040750,    0.13002695938,    1.27777222441,  14,  1245,  9.66432079617568E-03
  27.44323926226,    0.08833731523,   -7.22228181328,  15,  1829,  4.57954183779169E-03
  27.66676714572,   -0.08858491918,   -3.03967034730,  16, -1325,  7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
   0.00114789308 :trend:
  -0.00000812799 :accel:
   0.16900142887 :K0:
  -2.66638530350 :level:
  -0.59358222129,    0.41773594163,    2.92527417872 1
  -1.18716444258,    0.45404745181,   -2.73901061401 2
  -3.56149332774,    0.54795215828,    0.96119163614 6
 -10.68447998321,    0.42635705652,   -1.74627536885 18

DTW 0.7737300057 0.5512873675 7 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3_exc2

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