-
-
Save pukpr/84d52ab15c54674360e7d8eb57c52852 to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.
if MLR_On or not (Forcing_Only or Is_Minimum_Entropy) then -- MLR_On | |
if Climate_Trend then | |
Secular_Trend := 1.0; | |
else | |
Secular_Trend := 0.0; | |
end if; | |
if Derivative then | |
DR(Data_Records'First).Value := Data_Records(Data_Records'First).Value; | |
for I in Data_Records'First+1 .. Data_Records'Last loop | |
DR(I).Value := DR(I-1).Value + Data_Records(I).Value; | |
end loop; | |
else | |
if Partial then | |
DR(Data_Records'First) := Data_Records(Data_Records'First); | |
for I in Data_Records'First+1 .. Data_Records'Last loop | |
DR(I).Value := Data_Records(I-1).Value + D.B.ShiftT*(Data_Records(I).Value - Data_Records(I-1).Value); | |
end loop; | |
else | |
DR := Data_Records; | |
end if; | |
end if; | |
DR := Annual_Add(DR, -1.0); | |
Regression_Factors (Data_Records => Excluded(DR), -- Time series | |
--First => First, | |
--Last => Last, -- Training Interval | |
Forcing => Excluded(Forcing), -- Value @ Time | |
NM => NM + NH, -- # modulations | |
DBLT => M, --D.B.LT, | |
DALTAP => MAP, --D.A.LTAP, | |
DALEVEL => D.A.LEVEL, | |
DAK0 => D.A.K0, | |
Secular_Trend => Secular_Trend, | |
Accel => Accel, | |
Singular => Singular | |
); | |
else | |
Singular := False; | |
end if; | |
CorrCoeff := 0.0; | |
Pareto_Scale := 1.0; | |
if Pareto then | |
Pareto_Start := 1; | |
else | |
Pareto_Start := NH+1; | |
end if; | |
for Pareto_Index in Pareto_Start .. NH+1 loop | |
if Forcing_Only or (Is_Minimum_Entropy and not MLR_On ) then | |
Model := Forcing; | |
else | |
Model := LTE(Forcing => Forcing, | |
Wave_Numbers => M(1 .. NM - 1 + Pareto_Index), --D.B.Lt(1..NM), | |
Amp_Phase => MAP(1 .. NM - 1 + Pareto_Index), --D.A.LTAP, | |
Offset => D.A.level, | |
K0 => D.A.K0, | |
Trend => Secular_Trend, | |
Accel => Accel, | |
NonLin => NonLin+D.B.IR); -- D.LT GEM.LTE.LT0 | |
if Derivative then | |
for I in reverse Model'First+1 .. Model'Last loop | |
Model(I).Value := Model(I).Value - Model(I-1).Value; | |
end loop; | |
Model(Model'First).Value := Model(Model'First+1).Value; | |
end if; | |
if Partial then | |
for I in Model'First+1 .. Model'Last loop | |
Impulses(I).Value := Model(I).Value - Model(I-1).Value; | |
end loop; | |
Impulses(Model'First).Value := 0.0; | |
for I in Model'Range loop | |
Model(I).Value := Model(I).Value + D.B.ShiftT* Impulses(I).Value; | |
end loop; | |
end if; | |
Model := Annual_Add(Model); | |
end if; |
Status: 2 2 0.71666 0.53546 # 36100
-9.49430961133 :offset:
107.99707997342 :bg:
0.00876526197 :impA:
1.45793828565 :impB:
8.13649198117 :impC:
-0.52515609298:delA:
0.23034475713:delB:
-0.00197129655:asym:
-0.06066918960:ann1:
-0.34380287868:ann2:
-0.04647292492:sem1:
-4.09754393296:sem2:
0.00015456976:year:
0.00000000000:IR:
-0.00632078066 :mA:
0.00468780170 :mP:
-0.29092326747 :shiftT:
0.72328512748 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.06606166534, 6.24824283868, 1, -37559, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.01361703510, 3.59322591465, 2, -1131, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.02182189840, -6.24591279173, 3, 863, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.02255456721, -0.08619990474, 4, -3229, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.07036661734, -2.60161133346, 5, -53148, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.23615225704, -0.82040098573, 6, 4847, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, 0.59129547606, -1.53920103590, 7, 4330, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.20571790854, 13.14966663558, 8, -8970, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.40094899308, -21.07490729046, 9, -415, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.07571791861, -6.02882653724, 10, 13353, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.08246259648, 0.67924117669, 11, 2566, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, -0.33382944608, 1.53426880633, 12, -206, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.22675747898, 7.77305916098, 13, -125985, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.40588740230, 0.74306747567, 14, 4100, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.19313579271, 10.72007661965, 15, 4117, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.35855021599, -1.90099072329, 16, -5060, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00846814175 :trend:
0.00005812951 :accel:
0.05739730935 :K0:
16.08236473832 :level:
0.84886246115, 0.08570407103, 0.54790376789 0
2.43585430305, 0.10440273221, -1.88868611614-1
-1.04327553241, 0.06535248710, -1.77948954468 0
-2.75037945776, 0.10114024225, 3.09561773580 1
-5.50075891553, 0.09065145861, -0.86726469022 2
DTW 0.5354787181 0.7166651618 2 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_2c
Status: 1 2 0.70410 0.57907 # 300
-9.50477795353 :offset:
108.02227281963 :bg:
0.04955762090 :impA:
-0.46633970795 :impB:
7.58338745713 :impC:
-0.53516265708:delA:
0.23034475713:delB:
-0.00101127322:asym:
-0.19993685254:ann1:
1.70826630084:ann2:
-0.11035645138:sem1:
-3.20406005086:sem2:
0.00015196456:year:
0.00000000000:IR:
-0.00567777815 :mA:
-0.00463071853 :mP:
-0.42629302700 :shiftT:
0.76030626580 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.06821250835, 6.24157519716, 1, -38779, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.01164336353, 3.60409679783, 2, -982, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.02170001726, -6.24862543257, 3, 857, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.02283331292, -0.09295839134, 4, -3268, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06904187498, -2.61062827012, 5, -52149, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.23742297598, -0.81971306710, 6, 4849, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, 0.58769767448, -1.53589414381, 7, 4303, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.23981849867, 13.12537983770, 8, -10440, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.35622222461, -21.48783964732, 9, -379, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.06346496663, -5.88087647358, 10, 11176, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.08262896583, 0.69542446619, 11, 2572, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, -0.32953415060, 1.56889599872, 12, -204, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.20222371351, 7.26683094949, 13, -112365, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.34082035389, 0.78406453903, 14, 3427, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.17890901619, 10.73107982604, 15, 3807, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.33382303800, -1.65497256440, 16, -4718, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00717079941 :trend:
0.00006164390 :accel:
-0.01389877698 :K0:
13.20311670257 :level:
7.08635238925, 0.25055295755, -1.91249817081-3
1.93961402361, 0.23530343230, -1.25713501516-1
2.50136566331, 0.23692725249, -0.88071212716-1
-1.03483009973, 0.39063480789, -0.17604514687 0
-2.81722164323, 0.40685891418, 1.55294210409 1
-5.63444328647, 0.51840011649, 2.85330367434 2
DTW 0.6024094198 0.7046277136 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_nino34_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_3
-9.50468874666 :offset:
108.03761278492 :bg:
0.01284900150 :impA:
-0.04674888377 :impB:
7.53272536572 :impC:
-0.53517863944:delA:
0.23034475713:delB:
-0.00069985892:asym:
-0.19467906071:ann1:
1.71610715115:ann2:
-0.13045510928:sem1:
-3.21772235526:sem2:
0.00015197154:year:
0.00000000000:IR:
-0.00515867735 :mA:
-0.00463048698 :mP:
-0.43369806623 :shiftT:
0.76417783845 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.06814987528, 6.24172126857, 1, -38743, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.01170010264, 3.60436195583, 2, -986, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.02185412915, -6.25104618500, 3, 864, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.02283849984, -0.09274758847, 4, -3269, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06904450096, -2.61349369819, 5, -52151, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.23639733065, -0.81971748933, 6, 4847, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, 0.58773194590, -1.53574341430, 7, 4303, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.24359036205, 13.19786252604, 8, -10603, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.35819253724, -21.48942634702, 9, -381, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.06357320976, -5.87128501515, 10, 11196, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.08270239414, 0.69649504601, 11, 2574, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, -0.31778197305, 1.57649154785, 12, -201, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.20366652005, 7.28183249479, 13, -113166, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.33908924937, 0.79942050542, 14, 3409, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.17271425578, 10.72312869882, 15, 3671, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.33600541303, -1.64327374843, 16, -4748, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00696871626 :trend:
0.00006099427 :accel:
-0.01577612796 :K0:
12.80856514452 :level:
-7.09070676832, 0.29919137741, -1.34198150592 3
-1.93875060633, 0.22759523896, -1.90547889908 1
2.50020388390, 0.22919300161, -0.91932567388-1
1.03643391183, 0.38861411520, -2.97842080402 0
-2.81434614863, 0.39199881891, 1.45435635501 1
-5.62869229727, 0.52747224057, 2.71372614610 2
DTW 0.6001577864 0.7143065330 5 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_nino34_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_3b
10 cycles of AMO -> NINO34 -> AMO fitting of 2 minutes each.
Status: 6 2 0.64623 0.40609 # 2400
-9.47316781591 :offset:
103.96939618655 :bg:
0.00117463871 :impA:
-4.59290899029 :impB:
1.18254330435 :impC:
0.53100678153:delA:
0.23034475713:delB:
-0.00155381074:asym:
0.02446254606:ann1:
-1.94694879100:ann2:
0.08816795902:sem1:
0.01163823648:sem2:
-0.00012848194:year:
0.00000000000:IR:
-0.00000000000 :mA:
-0.00403312138 :mP:
-0.19404939764 :shiftT:
0.65822842432 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.05655947011, 5.39181887769, 1, -32171, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.01328099884, 3.91983881985, 2, -1106, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.01871040300, -6.27908017145, 3, 725, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01781758282, -0.15997096570, 4, -2572, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.07535615609, -2.61741194932, 5, -56910, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.64263689666, -0.88607396786, 6, 5322, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, 0.60749323861, -1.52534288233, 7, 4451, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.22587493125, 7.04084711734, 8, -9839, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.38892386025, 21.45512711718, 9, -405, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, -0.29322222485, -10.98490389190, 10, -52199, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.10928671789, 0.60848723302, 11, 3433, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, -0.32004441385, 1.36517459402, 12, -201, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.20600898694, 8.31178853939, 13, -114467, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.40673564745, 0.93325341014, 14, 4109, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.29599434048, -15.52477191965, 15, 6363, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.31840844437, -1.46294946927, 16, -4504, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00822914891 :trend:
0.00007959573 :accel:
7.19682042957 :K0:
27.08205762276 :level:
1.82171701707, 0.28087053101, -2.87582885286 0
-5.24214067187, 0.40702662651, -2.62088481273 1
1.22590490131, 0.17351821598, 0.91224243463 0
0.00977267950, 119.13106078723, -3.04043051737 0
-7.57419028975, 0.27737190619, 0.46531788364 1
-22.72257086926, 0.26467576089, 1.14038642181 3
DTW 0.4290933301 0.6465208776 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> notepad .\2run.ps1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_4
-9.49237815896 :offset:
109.72346214669 :bg:
0.33543335753 :impA:
-2.91618453647 :impB:
7.28672859532 :impC:
-0.52509169281:delA:
0.23034475713:delB:
0.00015797556:asym:
0.53656106892:ann1:
-4.46041461453:ann2:
0.22352409657:sem1:
2.75374471525:sem2:
0.00015014874:year:
-0.08433804318:IR:
-0.01596806040 :mA:
0.00478511504 :mP:
-0.58786567229 :shiftT:
0.83290647104 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.06896815690, -6.25118909634, 1, -39207, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.01549609064, 3.94758697494, 2, -1274, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.02131127827, -6.26605335971, 3, 840, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01969771265, -0.14443727452, 4, -2833, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06976747815, -2.59568169730, 5, -52696, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.24714340245, -0.84926446394, 6, 4860, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, 0.59170113274, -1.54482347185, 7, 4333, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.19461630136, 12.54234599630, 8, -8491, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.39062653938, -27.53474882757, 9, -406, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.05394376766, -5.68336564078, 10, 9485, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.07732116597, 0.69635675757, 11, 2400, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.29629565883, 1.85305908358, 12, -6, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.24404493592, 7.85166323602, 13, -135582, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.40078906581, 0.74551621417, 14, 4047, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.24868057250, 10.40560811360, 15, 5330, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.33534449226, -1.49127335560, 16, -4739, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00988632671 :trend:
-0.00002842984 :accel:
-0.13245917018 :K0:
-19.09516352996 :level:
0.89495320122, 0.28787328253, -2.55144827122 0
-1.74332063933, 0.48126143557, -2.46973677129 1
-0.43657782927, 0.47053943975, 2.77234373617 0
-2.84636072175, 0.45916342194, -2.64473546455 1
-14.23180360877, 0.43219583081, 1.48486077853 5
DTW 0.7880304552 0.7330654785 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_pdo_part_1945_1950_exclude_tropical_2
Update to AMO here
https://gist.github.com/pukpr/84d52ab15c54674360e7d8eb57c52852?permalink_comment_id=5084244#gistcomment-5084244
Status: 2 2 0.75033 0.35095 # 5700
-9.46736735374 :offset:
106.99236340821 :bg:
0.00316432712 :impA:
0.38199626205 :impB:
7.52118351231 :impC:
-0.51668996672:delA:
0.23034475713:delB:
0.00019321357:asym:
-0.06721981644:ann1:
-0.50178586235:ann2:
-0.02422659289:sem1:
0.71161108902:sem2:
0.00015941292:year:
-0.12849985161:IR:
-0.01761246899 :mA:
-0.00496781612 :mP:
0.10462905914 :shiftT:
0.75668717823 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, 0.01434153973, 20.85839318560, 1, 8032, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.03513496590, 3.61925739541, 2, -2761, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.07044107292, -6.30176340333, 3, 3007, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01336777293, -0.40790189299, 4, -1955, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.07164213265, -2.50135234512, 5, -54110, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.16328471814, -0.97946837241, 6, 4762, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, 0.59417661524, -1.54382998458, 7, 4351, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.07077028983, 13.46966189982, 8, -3151, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.37243441908, -34.06744582968, 9, -392, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.12151400863, -6.33543499003, 10, 21490, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.10247919356, 0.76037957577, 11, 3213, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.42562939911, 1.81692154351, 12, 35, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.11865446904, 6.43275316849, 13, -65971, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.35470994858, 0.93122762940, 14, 3570, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.15993677912, 10.18790619345, 15, 3392, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.22275315674, -2.60328389153, 16, -3181, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00617550899 :trend:
0.00004165818 :accel:
0.04828296096 :K0:
11.68064498874 :level:
2.74416639768, 0.13855286836, 2.76994114030 2
-0.31932662299, 0.04460204491, -2.67284980184 0
1.56530801391, 0.03430099029, -1.90306133456 1
3.13061602781, 0.01536026166, -1.55978760212 2
4.69592404172, 0.09127814150, 1.80695595221 3
DTW 0.3509729249 0.7503616995 2 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1plus1
For PDO, start on a different month, shifts the modulation
-9.46655228585 :offset:
105.66475663404 :bg:
0.06047647117 :impA:
1.22059399598 :impB:
9.17167106703 :impC:
-0.51759495684:delA:
0.75000000000:delB:
0.00005931219:asym:
0.39947731344:ann1:
1.50292233581:ann2:
-0.34616812582:sem1:
1.43959291720:sem2:
0.00016093233:year:
-0.65755711548:IR:
-0.02511743617 :mA:
-0.00494696839 :mP:
-0.20243994827 :shiftT:
0.75636204391 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, 0.01332491497, 20.79234097428, 1, 7456, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.03519066526, 3.67138006689, 2, -2766, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06970964175, -6.30685101125, 3, 2975, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01190361107, -0.44494679057, 4, -1752, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.07196340454, -2.54434342971, 5, -54352, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.13829846754, -0.99010710881, 6, 4733, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, 0.60310155701, -1.54406892905, 7, 4418, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.08326679779, 12.98166339880, 8, -3690, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.34260432225, -33.67151632915, 9, -369, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.10593153047, -6.44045638480, 10, 18722, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.10362640878, 0.78348944976, 11, 3250, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.41900945760, 1.79235047792, 12, 33, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.14157403241, 6.92961932027, 13, -78695, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.34948693601, 0.84973180197, 14, 3516, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.15473669298, 9.78384198287, 15, 3279, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.21350649485, -2.40947316674, 16, -3053, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00588250917 :trend:
-0.00003088970 :accel:
-0.10158539216 :K0:
-11.13836951554 :level:
-2.71980382673, 0.59734291838, 2.76994107867-2
0.20135679453, 0.12701094995, -0.42322058311 0
1.51503896181, 0.54719367973, -2.03350426927 1
3.03007792362, 0.24294691771, -0.31398796835 2
4.54511688543, 0.52944281732, -0.06317193400 3
DTW 0.6286634721 0.7670845497 5 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1plus1shift1
-9.38659005946 :offset:
105.43167257944 :bg:
0.00000000000 :impA:
0.00000000000 :impB:
0.00000000000 :impC:
-0.52157443526:delA:
0.21893944285:delB:
0.00166117356:asym:
-0.18672027903:ann1:
-6.54955827266:ann2:
-0.15380623217:sem1:
-1.11067898060:sem2:
0.00015280995:year:
0.26974972620:IR:
-0.01509759786 :mA:
0.00528129749 :mP:
-0.50550595169 :shiftT:
0.44963350761 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02239916080, -16.27219314091, 1, -12801, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04430457937, 3.54551103650, 2, -3456, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06125662291, -12.48302302974, 3, 2602, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01949488432, -0.45083784963, 4, -2805, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06894759205, 2.51231091927, 5, -52078, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.15608272291, -0.96134456876, 6, -4954, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.63460073362, 1.57377823062, 7, -4854, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.03226984391, 13.39280658020, 8, -1491, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.22358927551, -44.06520071976, 9, -275, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.03909647154, 4.13892941302, 10, 6847, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.11497494761, 0.90090860829, 11, 3617, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.44560731995, 2.33491106408, 12, 41, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.05071815858, 4.75481692905, 13, -28256, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.12878291202, 1.40644982563, 14, 1233, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.09433719186, -6.96142373596, 15, 1960, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.09286865549, -3.35014673963, 16, -1385, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00287378457 :trend:
0.00005813181 :accel:
0.06720713684 :K0:
5.16632787133 :level:
-0.58555525280, 0.19118857929, -2.73695319869 1
-1.17111050559, 0.46015091345, -2.84177538441 2
-3.51333151677, 0.60264829747, 0.38092823393 6
-10.53999455031, 0.33424736473, -2.37340472622 18
CC 0.4609988691 0.8295812067 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> notepad .\enso_opt.exe.resp
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> .\ev
Name Value
CLIMATE_INDEX .\nino4_noaa_1870.dat
DTW 1
LOCKT false
MODULATION true
NLOOP 20
PART true
TRIGGER 0.9
Annual with a slight biennial asymmetry, enough to genrate the AMO long-periof
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino4_raw_part_1920_1980_excl2
-9.39314959407 :offset:
111.32837724481 :bg:
0.01130917881 :impA:
7.85512482758 :impB:
7.35163431947 :impC:
-0.51705678879:delA:
0.21893829197:delB:
-0.14768340511:asym:
0.08823085546:ann1:
-9.25796090786:ann2:
0.06164770501:sem1:
-1.60451921887:sem2:
0.00016823091:year:
-0.14441813258:IR:
-0.01747956617 :mA:
-0.00510824186 :mP:
-0.56005379496 :shiftT:
0.44937986033 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02327963327, -16.26484560492, 1, -13300, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04315032267, 3.54310577590, 2, -3369, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06144182306, -12.35227847387, 3, 2610, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01990631507, -0.46967128839, 4, -2862, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.07230879504, 2.46122710861, 5, -54612, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.20033275582, -0.94354951648, 6, 4805, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.59543538469, 1.54182430303, 7, -4561, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.05443592946, 15.73653539215, 8, -2447, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.28037658065, -44.82954409466, 9, -320, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.07570323868, 2.26091251778, 10, 13351, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.06959642722, 0.62654423840, 11, 2150, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.45857444150, 2.36663361283, 12, 45, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.08807919614, -4.19370767082, 13, -48997, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.11633438427, 1.42074107238, 14, 1104, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.12163119215, -7.51218197417, 15, 2556, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.13762162642, -3.03288339599, 16, -2004, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00548061848 :trend:
0.00003665375 :accel:
0.05159463447 :K0:
10.37681890996 :level:
-0.58417651121, 0.07335464441, 3.05366148686 1
-2.33670604482, 0.04571964711, 0.41721642636 4
-3.50505906723, 0.07114419347, 2.02491330538 6
-6.42594162326, 0.09605946895, -2.79405158014 11
DTW 0.5599703565 0.7465738218 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_amo_raw_part_1920_1980_excl1b_asym1dtw3
PDO
-12.59346263796 :offset:
110.23809953393 :bg:
0.06868629540 :impA:
1.91621118209 :impB:
6.96578433306 :impC:
-0.51813665198:delA:
0.21893829197:delB:
-0.31504829457:asym:
0.04471116162:ann1:
0.43776703049:ann2:
0.02856872033:sem1:
-2.28896803084:sem2:
0.00016684315:year:
0.74598964529:IR:
-0.02335642989 :mA:
0.00501852307 :mP:
-0.32233181867 :shiftT:
0.42354811937 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02825952396, -16.31126912001, 1, -16124, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04253896754, 3.57366876575, 2, -3322, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06613470946, -12.36806391478, 3, 2817, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.02182066891, -0.43868540546, 4, -3128, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06873100960, 2.48593307667, 5, -51915, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.26710298730, -0.95164834002, 6, -5083, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.59245626287, 1.53843607803, 7, -4538, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.04338779338, 12.74379517710, 8, -1971, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.22685344489, -44.29604772823, 9, -278, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.04107912340, 2.34304652566, 10, 7199, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.06218004436, 0.23177096144, 11, 1910, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.49518940370, 2.39430573791, 12, 57, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04335330350, 4.39579253624, 13, -24168, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.14976003801, 1.38947703110, 14, 1450, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.12193594050, -7.09370896775, 15, 2563, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.07808529261, -4.45987973966, 16, -1180, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
-0.05690756506 :K0:
0.09995529235 :level:
1.08433943226, 0.28169563678, -1.67856521882 2
0.58812493285, 0.09075862915, -1.53006978490 1
11.76249865693, 0.20174871291, 3.09515517247 20
3.52874959708, 0.39607832818, -2.27733159164 6
10.58624879124, 0.76624787784, 2.87570019758 18
CC 0.5225781070 0.6633507608 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_pdo_raw_part_1920_1980_excl1b_asym1dtw3
Extra high harmonic
.\nino34_knmi_start_blank.dat for Thread # 8 1
Catchup mode enabled:TRUE
-9.38688555514 :offset:
105.64345246511 :bg:
0.05734680321 :impA:
3.01872690552 :impB:
12.90669438673 :impC:
-0.51994107250:delA:
0.21881111535:delB:
-0.51779139137:asym:
-0.12921329893:ann1:
8.60186683693:ann2:
-0.05252616304:sem1:
0.17910996584:sem2:
0.00016105141:year:
-0.21308558972:IR:
-0.01528839665 :mA:
0.00538241793 :mP:
-0.52593875784 :shiftT:
0.47906625939 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02335689226, -16.27034554866, 1, -13344, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04285514217, 3.55228256805, 2, -3346, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06145774885, -12.47238819007, 3, 2611, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01958034730, -0.49069665574, 4, -2817, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06924074952, 2.48881898582, 5, -52299, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.15572955856, -0.96464005238, 6, -4953, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.59400940934, 1.53734365872, 7, -4550, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.04588601823, 13.58916999158, 8, -2078, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.23773931301, -44.10220852494, 9, -287, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.03711707904, 3.61233774140, 10, 6495, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.06467716779, 0.56014062688, 11, 1991, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.43919393727, 2.36000569034, 12, 39, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04880377513, 4.81649450548, 13, -27194, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.13223404763, 1.30015735049, 14, 1268, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.09173475541, -7.12170714280, 15, 1903, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.08490458014, -3.40118646425, 16, -1274, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00380590812 :trend:
0.00000796061 :accel:
0.09086708544 :K0:
-7.69461291679 :level:
0.59161573661, 0.29568422118, -0.18474635780 1
1.18323147322, 0.69704181615, -0.42133645279 2
3.54969441966, 0.75266351413, 2.71714731388 6
10.64908325898, 0.41198308505, -0.90993253699 18
153.22847578199, 0.26728477420, 0.01394377949 259
DTW 0.6131801911 0.7817081388 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3
-9.38689118723 :offset:
105.67652811417 :bg:
0.13153810119 :impA:
-18.45727266410 :impB:
12.89820510509 :impC:
-0.51862602310:delA:
0.21881111535:delB:
-0.51778358862:asym:
-0.19195103778:ann1:
8.61042660640:ann2:
0.19837540958:sem1:
0.36897881357:sem2:
0.00016144111:year:
-0.45047513997:IR:
-0.01402800800 :mA:
-0.00545309083 :mP:
-0.43462480671 :shiftT:
0.12095879884 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02351385401, -16.27125982768, 1, -13433, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04288700357, 3.55047529524, 2, -3349, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06156500624, -12.47937521118, 3, 2616, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01941125618, -0.52715546618, 4, -2793, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06805964023, 2.49904379959, 5, -51409, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.18477650630, -0.96461828207, 6, -4987, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.58536596702, 1.55658053507, 7, -4485, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.04885726874, 13.75277454642, 8, -2207, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.25875252935, -44.09141189586, 9, -303, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.04131489186, 3.26613204117, 10, 7241, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.05865656004, 0.44240113967, 11, 1796, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.43540489549, 2.35419947368, 12, 38, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04416800046, 4.82934190333, 13, -24620, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.13462664037, 1.29782197617, 14, 1293, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.09167704313, -7.10913391882, 15, 1902, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.08127619086, -3.30254462450, 16, -1224, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00012719499 :trend:
-0.00000617852 :accel:
0.17845098581 :K0:
-0.63487320249 :level:
0.59300471091, 0.38699340129, 0.18825682514 1
1.18600942181, 0.52810985758, -0.11051974214 2
3.55802826544, 0.31669154942, 2.68598190277 6
10.67408479631, 0.34546879536, 0.04883882628 18
153.58822012467, 0.25425588762, 1.80764856209 259
DTW 0.8003718688 0.6046423179 4 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3_excl
-9.38675420574 :offset:
105.43172304182 :bg:
0.23021287293 :impA:
-5.65048372583 :impB:
13.03688698639 :impC:
-0.51981693623:delA:
0.21881111535:delB:
-0.51630944293:asym:
-0.11904625750:ann1:
8.24631636771:ann2:
0.08634351413:sem1:
0.65525206907:sem2:
0.00015778224:year:
-0.49633060440:IR:
-0.02035330823 :mA:
0.00545437307 :mP:
-0.40228834320 :shiftT:
0.06124349551 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02399066670, -16.27641734459, 1, -13704, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04307280956, 3.55698323265, 2, -3363, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06162551076, -12.48046747738, 3, 2619, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01944769202, -0.56320805841, 4, -2798, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06681593313, 2.49855910214, 5, -50471, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.18385727863, -0.96431884470, 6, -4986, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.58628302595, 1.44914906544, 7, -4492, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.05197055423, 13.67617805277, 8, -2341, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.25918174518, -44.07106722530, 9, -303, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.04457390903, 3.37052279011, 10, 7820, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.05026747034, 0.04331332799, 11, 1525, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.43278938413, 2.34295527660, 12, 37, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04178482787, 5.15921556671, 13, -23297, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.13002695938, 1.27777222441, 14, 1245, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.08833731523, -7.22228181328, 15, 1829, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.08858491918, -3.03967034730, 16, -1325, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00114789308 :trend:
-0.00000812799 :accel:
0.16900142887 :K0:
-2.66638530350 :level:
-0.59358222129, 0.41773594163, 2.92527417872 1
-1.18716444258, 0.45404745181, -2.73901061401 2
-3.56149332774, 0.54795215828, 0.96119163614 6
-10.68447998321, 0.42635705652, -1.74627536885 18
DTW 0.7737300057 0.5512873675 7 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3_exc2
NINO34 raw
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.el_nino.sst.dat
Status: 6 13 0.84674 0.56449 # 700
CC 0.5726560054 0.8469605012 3 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl_dtw1_from_iodpt5bHarm
alternate symmetry, doesn't work as well with AMO
Resetting 3 34%
CC 0.6537863140 0.8332559200 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl2
Resetting 7 61%
CC 0.6425129135 0.8497538270 6 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank
Tried fitting w/o annual terms and then added those terms
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/2855758/338028730-bac85ae1-75b7-453b-81c8-28a63b5a9660.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJnaXRodWIuY29tIiwiYXVkIjoicmF3LmdpdGh1YnVzZXJjb250ZW50LmNvbSIsImtleSI6ImtleTUiLCJleHAiOjE3MjExNDkxNTcsIm5iZiI6MTcyMTE0ODg1NywicGF0aCI6Ii8yODU1NzU4LzMzODAyODczMC1iYWM4NWFlMS03NWI3LTQ1M2ItODFjOC0yOGE2M2I1YTk2NjAucG5nP1gtQW16LUFsZ29yaXRobT1BV1M0LUhNQUMtU0hBMjU2JlgtQW16LUNyZWRlbnRpYWw9QUtJQVZDT0RZTFNBNTNQUUs0WkElMkYyMDI0MDcxNiUyRnVzLWVhc3QtMSUyRnMzJTJGYXdzNF9yZXF1ZXN0JlgtQW16LURhdGU9MjAyNDA3MTZUMTY1NDE3WiZYLUFtei1FeHBpcmVzPTMwMCZYLUFtei1TaWduYXR1cmU9Zjg2ZmM4ZTA2NmVjYjgxMjA4YTIzNGQwNGI4MTllOTA3MDZkNzA2NzIzMGI3MDBiZjcwM2MyMmYzM2Y2MTExMiZYLUFtei1TaWduZWRIZWFkZXJzPWhvc3QmYWN0b3JfaWQ9MCZrZXlfaWQ9MCZyZXBvX2lkPTAifQ.FKQnwpk1QSr2P8jcdGs_aDER7dS9brKsR83FQJwxmkU)
CC 0.6371339820 0.8550159795 2 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank_wait_annual
CC 0.6459781133 0.8565671573 5 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_raw_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank_wait_annual
AMO
Status: 3 2 0.77389 0.75768 # 200
CC 0.7576841242 0.7738929862 3 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore bi_amoo_part_1920_1980_excl3_blank_wait_annualCC
Status: 7 2 0.71354 0.23476 # 3200
DTW 0.3812248910 0.7135481254 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1
Status: 4 2 0.67706 0.74488 # 100
DTW 0.7401996225 0.6772586010 6 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> $env:CLIMATE_INDEX=".\nino34_knmi_start_blank.dat"