-
-
Save pukpr/84d52ab15c54674360e7d8eb57c52852 to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.
if MLR_On or not (Forcing_Only or Is_Minimum_Entropy) then -- MLR_On | |
if Climate_Trend then | |
Secular_Trend := 1.0; | |
else | |
Secular_Trend := 0.0; | |
end if; | |
if Derivative then | |
DR(Data_Records'First).Value := Data_Records(Data_Records'First).Value; | |
for I in Data_Records'First+1 .. Data_Records'Last loop | |
DR(I).Value := DR(I-1).Value + Data_Records(I).Value; | |
end loop; | |
else | |
if Partial then | |
DR(Data_Records'First) := Data_Records(Data_Records'First); | |
for I in Data_Records'First+1 .. Data_Records'Last loop | |
DR(I).Value := Data_Records(I-1).Value + D.B.ShiftT*(Data_Records(I).Value - Data_Records(I-1).Value); | |
end loop; | |
else | |
DR := Data_Records; | |
end if; | |
end if; | |
DR := Annual_Add(DR, -1.0); | |
Regression_Factors (Data_Records => Excluded(DR), -- Time series | |
--First => First, | |
--Last => Last, -- Training Interval | |
Forcing => Excluded(Forcing), -- Value @ Time | |
NM => NM + NH, -- # modulations | |
DBLT => M, --D.B.LT, | |
DALTAP => MAP, --D.A.LTAP, | |
DALEVEL => D.A.LEVEL, | |
DAK0 => D.A.K0, | |
Secular_Trend => Secular_Trend, | |
Accel => Accel, | |
Singular => Singular | |
); | |
else | |
Singular := False; | |
end if; | |
CorrCoeff := 0.0; | |
Pareto_Scale := 1.0; | |
if Pareto then | |
Pareto_Start := 1; | |
else | |
Pareto_Start := NH+1; | |
end if; | |
for Pareto_Index in Pareto_Start .. NH+1 loop | |
if Forcing_Only or (Is_Minimum_Entropy and not MLR_On ) then | |
Model := Forcing; | |
else | |
Model := LTE(Forcing => Forcing, | |
Wave_Numbers => M(1 .. NM - 1 + Pareto_Index), --D.B.Lt(1..NM), | |
Amp_Phase => MAP(1 .. NM - 1 + Pareto_Index), --D.A.LTAP, | |
Offset => D.A.level, | |
K0 => D.A.K0, | |
Trend => Secular_Trend, | |
Accel => Accel, | |
NonLin => NonLin+D.B.IR); -- D.LT GEM.LTE.LT0 | |
if Derivative then | |
for I in reverse Model'First+1 .. Model'Last loop | |
Model(I).Value := Model(I).Value - Model(I-1).Value; | |
end loop; | |
Model(Model'First).Value := Model(Model'First+1).Value; | |
end if; | |
if Partial then | |
for I in Model'First+1 .. Model'Last loop | |
Impulses(I).Value := Model(I).Value - Model(I-1).Value; | |
end loop; | |
Impulses(Model'First).Value := 0.0; | |
for I in Model'Range loop | |
Model(I).Value := Model(I).Value + D.B.ShiftT* Impulses(I).Value; | |
end loop; | |
end if; | |
Model := Annual_Add(Model); | |
end if; |
-9.38659005946 :offset:
105.43167257944 :bg:
0.00000000000 :impA:
0.00000000000 :impB:
0.00000000000 :impC:
-0.52157443526:delA:
0.21893944285:delB:
0.00166117356:asym:
-0.18672027903:ann1:
-6.54955827266:ann2:
-0.15380623217:sem1:
-1.11067898060:sem2:
0.00015280995:year:
0.26974972620:IR:
-0.01509759786 :mA:
0.00528129749 :mP:
-0.50550595169 :shiftT:
0.44963350761 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02239916080, -16.27219314091, 1, -12801, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04430457937, 3.54551103650, 2, -3456, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06125662291, -12.48302302974, 3, 2602, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01949488432, -0.45083784963, 4, -2805, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06894759205, 2.51231091927, 5, -52078, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.15608272291, -0.96134456876, 6, -4954, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.63460073362, 1.57377823062, 7, -4854, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.03226984391, 13.39280658020, 8, -1491, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.22358927551, -44.06520071976, 9, -275, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.03909647154, 4.13892941302, 10, 6847, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.11497494761, 0.90090860829, 11, 3617, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.44560731995, 2.33491106408, 12, 41, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.05071815858, 4.75481692905, 13, -28256, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.12878291202, 1.40644982563, 14, 1233, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.09433719186, -6.96142373596, 15, 1960, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.09286865549, -3.35014673963, 16, -1385, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00287378457 :trend:
0.00005813181 :accel:
0.06720713684 :K0:
5.16632787133 :level:
-0.58555525280, 0.19118857929, -2.73695319869 1
-1.17111050559, 0.46015091345, -2.84177538441 2
-3.51333151677, 0.60264829747, 0.38092823393 6
-10.53999455031, 0.33424736473, -2.37340472622 18
CC 0.4609988691 0.8295812067 1 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> notepad .\enso_opt.exe.resp
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> .\ev
Name Value
CLIMATE_INDEX .\nino4_noaa_1870.dat
DTW 1
LOCKT false
MODULATION true
NLOOP 20
PART true
TRIGGER 0.9
Annual with a slight biennial asymmetry, enough to genrate the AMO long-periof
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino4_raw_part_1920_1980_excl2
-9.39314959407 :offset:
111.32837724481 :bg:
0.01130917881 :impA:
7.85512482758 :impB:
7.35163431947 :impC:
-0.51705678879:delA:
0.21893829197:delB:
-0.14768340511:asym:
0.08823085546:ann1:
-9.25796090786:ann2:
0.06164770501:sem1:
-1.60451921887:sem2:
0.00016823091:year:
-0.14441813258:IR:
-0.01747956617 :mA:
-0.00510824186 :mP:
-0.56005379496 :shiftT:
0.44937986033 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02327963327, -16.26484560492, 1, -13300, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04315032267, 3.54310577590, 2, -3369, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06144182306, -12.35227847387, 3, 2610, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01990631507, -0.46967128839, 4, -2862, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.07230879504, 2.46122710861, 5, -54612, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, 4.20033275582, -0.94354951648, 6, 4805, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.59543538469, 1.54182430303, 7, -4561, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.05443592946, 15.73653539215, 8, -2447, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.28037658065, -44.82954409466, 9, -320, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.07570323868, 2.26091251778, 10, 13351, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.06959642722, 0.62654423840, 11, 2150, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.45857444150, 2.36663361283, 12, 45, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.08807919614, -4.19370767082, 13, -48997, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.11633438427, 1.42074107238, 14, 1104, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.12163119215, -7.51218197417, 15, 2556, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.13762162642, -3.03288339599, 16, -2004, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
-0.00548061848 :trend:
0.00003665375 :accel:
0.05159463447 :K0:
10.37681890996 :level:
-0.58417651121, 0.07335464441, 3.05366148686 1
-2.33670604482, 0.04571964711, 0.41721642636 4
-3.50505906723, 0.07114419347, 2.02491330538 6
-6.42594162326, 0.09605946895, -2.79405158014 11
DTW 0.5599703565 0.7465738218 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_amo_raw_part_1920_1980_excl1b_asym1dtw3
PDO
-12.59346263796 :offset:
110.23809953393 :bg:
0.06868629540 :impA:
1.91621118209 :impB:
6.96578433306 :impC:
-0.51813665198:delA:
0.21893829197:delB:
-0.31504829457:asym:
0.04471116162:ann1:
0.43776703049:ann2:
0.02856872033:sem1:
-2.28896803084:sem2:
0.00016684315:year:
0.74598964529:IR:
-0.02335642989 :mA:
0.00501852307 :mP:
-0.32233181867 :shiftT:
0.42354811937 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02825952396, -16.31126912001, 1, -16124, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04253896754, 3.57366876575, 2, -3322, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06613470946, -12.36806391478, 3, 2817, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.02182066891, -0.43868540546, 4, -3128, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06873100960, 2.48593307667, 5, -51915, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.26710298730, -0.95164834002, 6, -5083, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.59245626287, 1.53843607803, 7, -4538, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.04338779338, 12.74379517710, 8, -1971, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.22685344489, -44.29604772823, 9, -278, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.04107912340, 2.34304652566, 10, 7199, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.06218004436, 0.23177096144, 11, 1910, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.49518940370, 2.39430573791, 12, 57, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04335330350, 4.39579253624, 13, -24168, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.14976003801, 1.38947703110, 14, 1450, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.12193594050, -7.09370896775, 15, 2563, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.07808529261, -4.45987973966, 16, -1180, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
-0.05690756506 :K0:
0.09995529235 :level:
1.08433943226, 0.28169563678, -1.67856521882 2
0.58812493285, 0.09075862915, -1.53006978490 1
11.76249865693, 0.20174871291, 3.09515517247 20
3.52874959708, 0.39607832818, -2.27733159164 6
10.58624879124, 0.76624787784, 2.87570019758 18
CC 0.5225781070 0.6633507608 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_pdo_raw_part_1920_1980_excl1b_asym1dtw3
Extra high harmonic
.\nino34_knmi_start_blank.dat for Thread # 8 1
Catchup mode enabled:TRUE
-9.38688555514 :offset:
105.64345246511 :bg:
0.05734680321 :impA:
3.01872690552 :impB:
12.90669438673 :impC:
-0.51994107250:delA:
0.21881111535:delB:
-0.51779139137:asym:
-0.12921329893:ann1:
8.60186683693:ann2:
-0.05252616304:sem1:
0.17910996584:sem2:
0.00016105141:year:
-0.21308558972:IR:
-0.01528839665 :mA:
0.00538241793 :mP:
-0.52593875784 :shiftT:
0.47906625939 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02335689226, -16.27034554866, 1, -13344, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04285514217, 3.55228256805, 2, -3346, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06145774885, -12.47238819007, 3, 2611, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01958034730, -0.49069665574, 4, -2817, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06924074952, 2.48881898582, 5, -52299, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.15572955856, -0.96464005238, 6, -4953, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.59400940934, 1.53734365872, 7, -4550, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.04588601823, 13.58916999158, 8, -2078, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.23773931301, -44.10220852494, 9, -287, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.03711707904, 3.61233774140, 10, 6495, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.06467716779, 0.56014062688, 11, 1991, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.43919393727, 2.36000569034, 12, 39, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04880377513, 4.81649450548, 13, -27194, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.13223404763, 1.30015735049, 14, 1268, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.09173475541, -7.12170714280, 15, 1903, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.08490458014, -3.40118646425, 16, -1274, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00380590812 :trend:
0.00000796061 :accel:
0.09086708544 :K0:
-7.69461291679 :level:
0.59161573661, 0.29568422118, -0.18474635780 1
1.18323147322, 0.69704181615, -0.42133645279 2
3.54969441966, 0.75266351413, 2.71714731388 6
10.64908325898, 0.41198308505, -0.90993253699 18
153.22847578199, 0.26728477420, 0.01394377949 259
DTW 0.6131801911 0.7817081388 8 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\restore mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3
-9.38689118723 :offset:
105.67652811417 :bg:
0.13153810119 :impA:
-18.45727266410 :impB:
12.89820510509 :impC:
-0.51862602310:delA:
0.21881111535:delB:
-0.51778358862:asym:
-0.19195103778:ann1:
8.61042660640:ann2:
0.19837540958:sem1:
0.36897881357:sem2:
0.00016144111:year:
-0.45047513997:IR:
-0.01402800800 :mA:
-0.00545309083 :mP:
-0.43462480671 :shiftT:
0.12095879884 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02351385401, -16.27125982768, 1, -13433, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04288700357, 3.55047529524, 2, -3349, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06156500624, -12.47937521118, 3, 2616, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01941125618, -0.52715546618, 4, -2793, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06805964023, 2.49904379959, 5, -51409, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.18477650630, -0.96461828207, 6, -4987, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.58536596702, 1.55658053507, 7, -4485, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.04885726874, 13.75277454642, 8, -2207, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.25875252935, -44.09141189586, 9, -303, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.04131489186, 3.26613204117, 10, 7241, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.05865656004, 0.44240113967, 11, 1796, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.43540489549, 2.35419947368, 12, 38, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04416800046, 4.82934190333, 13, -24620, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.13462664037, 1.29782197617, 14, 1293, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.09167704313, -7.10913391882, 15, 1902, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.08127619086, -3.30254462450, 16, -1224, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00012719499 :trend:
-0.00000617852 :accel:
0.17845098581 :K0:
-0.63487320249 :level:
0.59300471091, 0.38699340129, 0.18825682514 1
1.18600942181, 0.52810985758, -0.11051974214 2
3.55802826544, 0.31669154942, 2.68598190277 6
10.67408479631, 0.34546879536, 0.04883882628 18
153.58822012467, 0.25425588762, 1.80764856209 259
DTW 0.8003718688 0.6046423179 4 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3_excl
-9.38675420574 :offset:
105.43172304182 :bg:
0.23021287293 :impA:
-5.65048372583 :impB:
13.03688698639 :impC:
-0.51981693623:delA:
0.21881111535:delB:
-0.51630944293:asym:
-0.11904625750:ann1:
8.24631636771:ann2:
0.08634351413:sem1:
0.65525206907:sem2:
0.00015778224:year:
-0.49633060440:IR:
-0.02035330823 :mA:
0.00545437307 :mP:
-0.40228834320 :shiftT:
0.06124349551 :init:
---- Tidal ----
27.32166155400, -0.02399066670, -16.27641734459, 1, -13704, 1.76356181782067E-04
27.21222081500, -0.04307280956, 3.55698323265, 2, -3363, 1.32018604870843E-03
27.10365333842, 0.06162551076, -12.48046747738, 3, 2619, 2.26683748305482E-03
6793.47648813065, -0.01944769202, -0.56320805841, 4, -2798, 7.20730041974031E-04
3396.73824406533, -0.06681593313, 2.49855910214, 5, -50471, 1.32647102305794E-04
27.55454988600, -4.18385727863, -0.96431884470, 6, -4986, 8.56291868681121E-02
13.77727494300, -0.58628302595, 1.44914906544, 7, -4492, 1.33483664215998E-02
9.18484996200, -0.05197055423, 13.67617805277, 8, -2341, 2.31927625303356E-03
13.63341568476, -0.25918174518, -44.07106722530, 9, -303, 1.27459896645223E-01
13.71880577217, 0.04457390903, 3.37052279011, 10, 7820, 5.62816955896931E-04
27.09267692660, 0.05026747034, 0.04331332799, 11, 1525, 3.09295406008444E-03
13.66083077700, 0.43278938413, 2.34295527660, 12, 37, 3.15782757230179E-01
1616.30271425126, -0.04178482787, 5.15921556671, 13, -23297, 1.80130389316582E-04
13.60611040750, 0.13002695938, 1.27777222441, 14, 1245, 9.66432079617568E-03
27.44323926226, 0.08833731523, -7.22228181328, 15, 1829, 4.57954183779169E-03
27.66676714572, -0.08858491918, -3.03967034730, 16, -1325, 7.22943925364544E-03
---- LTE ----
0.00114789308 :trend:
-0.00000812799 :accel:
0.16900142887 :K0:
-2.66638530350 :level:
-0.59358222129, 0.41773594163, 2.92527417872 1
-1.18716444258, 0.45404745181, -2.73901061401 2
-3.56149332774, 0.54795215828, 0.96119163614 6
-10.68447998321, 0.42635705652, -1.74627536885 18
DTW 0.7737300057 0.5512873675 7 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup mono_nino34_part_1920_1980_excl_asym3_exc2
Update to AMO here
https://gist.github.com/pukpr/84d52ab15c54674360e7d8eb57c52852?permalink_comment_id=5084244#gistcomment-5084244
Status: 2 2 0.75033 0.35095 # 5700
DTW 0.3509729249 0.7503616995 2 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1plus1
For PDO, start on a different month, shifts the modulation
DTW 0.6286634721 0.7670845497 5 1
PS C:\Users\pp\scratch\na\run> ..\backup bi_amo_part_1945_1950_exclude_1plus1shift1