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Last active August 19, 2018 22:12
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Math check
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payoff_distribution.md
  • Again, the math here seems off. If the agent has to get a $1000 checkup if they've realized that they've been affected by a cosmic ray, doesn't that imply that the actual world table is as follows?
Decision            World       Utility     Probability     Weighted Utility        Total Utility
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Attempt taking $100 No ray      $100        1-p             100-100p                
                    Ray         $1 - 1000   p               p - 1000p               100-1099p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Attempt taking $1   No ray      $1          1-p             1-p                     
                    Ray         $100-1000   p               100p-1000p              1-901p
  • Given that, the probability p at which the two worlds have equal total utility is:
    • 100 - 1099p = 1 - 901p
    • 99 = 198p
    • 0.5 = p
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