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Last active January 26, 2023 17:36
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Rules of Betting
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betting_rules.md

Rules of Betting

  1. Do not bet on horses - Unless you are taking a gamble (100% gambling, attracts 6% tax)

  2. Prefer bets on markets with 2 final outcomes (No draws) - So avoid betting on final outcomes of test cricket and football matches (where the draw is likely). If you want to bet on football or sports with a probable draw rather choose double chance or draw no bet options. Check this double chance calculator

  3. Only bet on a sport you have played or watched for at least 5 years - it is important to enjoy watching the game

  4. Bet on mainstream markets (Team/Player to Win), the more obscure the more the risk if you have no edge

  5. If the sport has In-play betting and half time / innings', only stake half the total betting amount before the game starts. Decide whether to stake the rest at half time / innings break or when you feel there is a bottom in the market

  6. Only place bets that will double your money or more. ie. with odds greater than 1 (decimal profit) or 2 (including stake)

  7. Only bet in-play if you are watching the game live - don't bet in-play if you cannot watch live

  8. Focus on the local games. like domestic cricket, domestic football, uk boxing etc. Have a niche.

  9. Know your win rate and correlate your odds:

    eg.

    Winrate: 0.75%

What odds do I need to break even

0.75(x) = 1

x = 1/0.75 = 1.3~

Odds must be greater than 1.3

  10. Cricket: In play, wait for key moments like after wickets / sixes / fours / sustained pressure (dot balls) to place bets

  11. Spread bets are also best taken after events...try go long shorting is hardly ever a good strategy. Make a decision as the batsmen walks in or has faced a first over.

  12. Never base your betting decision on what pundits or armchair opionistas have to say. Make up your own mind, the crowd is wrong a lot of the time. Capitalise on this.

  13. Never bet on politics or TV specials. Eg. Trump 2020...voter fraud can happen in the most free of countries

Betting Tips

T20

The powerplay is the first 6 overs, only 2 fielders allowed outside the circle. Most teams really smash it during these overs and the odds on the other team become most lucrative at this point. So placing a bet as the 6 overs end, on the bowling team at this point is good. Overs 7 - 12 the play usually slows down, pressure builds and wickets fall.

ODI

ODI's can be safer as it is a longer game and there is less pressure and are the best matches to bet on I find

Don't bet on team with political issues like sometimes in West Indies cricket

Boxing

Don't bet on boxing when decisions are likely to be rigged. That is dodgy promoters - like Don King. The home fighter will usually win. Decisions are also rigged by judges that are no good (Adelaide Byrd is one example). Also understand the role of the crowd. Nationalities of judges should also be determined before the bet is placed. Always bet the draw in boxing using a double chance calculator

Sometimes using method of victory can be useful - points vs stoppage. Check the history on boxrec to see if the fighter is heavy handed or not.

Wait for after the weigh-in to place the bet. Fighters can miss weight and also can seem drained or chubby - which helps guide your pick. Again...listen to ideas but make your own mind up.

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