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Really really informal simulation of the election
library("hash")
# States treated as going democratic with probability 1
DemStates <- hash()
.set(DemStates, "WA"=12, "OR"=7, "CA"=55, "NM"=5,
"MN"=10, "WI"=10, "MI"=16, "IL"=20,
"PA"=20, "MD"=10, "DC"=3, "DE"=3,
"NJ"=14, "CT"=7, "RI"=4, "MA"=11,
"VT"=3,"ME"=4,"HI"=4, "NY"=29)
# States treated as going republican with probability 1
RepStates <- hash()
.set(RepStates, "ID"=4, "UT"=6, "WY"=3, "MT"=3, "ND"=3,
"SD"=3, "NE"=5, "KS"=6, "OK"=7, "TX"=38,
"AZ"=11, "MO"=10, "AR"=6, "LA"=8,
"MS"=6, "AL"=9, "GA"=16, "TN"=11,
"KY"=8, "WV"=5, "SC"=9, "AK"=3, "IN"=11)
# Swing States
# First entry in each value of the hash is the electoral
# college vote
# Second entry is the intrade probability of the state
# going democratic
SwingStates <- hash()
.set(SwingStates, "NV"= c(6, 0.812), "CO"=c(9, 0.762),
"IA"=c(6, 0.750), "VA"=c(13, 0.741),
"NC"=c(15, 0.370), "FL"=c(29, 0.678),
"NH"=c(4, 0.786), "OH"=c(18, 0.779))
# electoral college votes needed to win
kCountNeeded <- 538/2
Run.Simulation <- function () {
# Returns TRUE if simulation predicts democratic win
# ... and FALSE otherwise
# treats each state as independent (I know - not true...)
dem.count <- sum(values(DemStates))
for (i in keys(SwingStates)) {
result <- runif(1)
state <- SwingStates[[i]]
if (result < state[2]) {
dem.count <- dem.count + state[1]
}
}
if (dem.count > kCountNeeded) {
return(T)
} else {
return(F)
}
}
Run.Simulations <- function(count) {
# returns portion of simulations that returned a
# democratic win
i <- 0
total.results <- c()
while (i < (count + 1)){
single.result <- Run.Simulation()
total.results <- append(total.results, single.result)
i <- i + 1
}
return(sum(total.results)/count)
}
Run.Simulations(10000) #=> 0.9894
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