auc2_plot.R

library(tidyverse)
elections <- dataverse::get_dataframe_by_name(
  filename = "1976-2020-president.tab",
  dataset = "doi:10.7910/DVN/42MVDX", 
  server = "dataverse.harvard.edu")

totals = elections |> filter(year == 2020) |> select(state_po, totalvotes) |> unique()
d = elections |> 
  filter(year %in% c(2016,2020), party_simplified == "DEMOCRAT", candidatevotes > 1000) |>
  mutate(percentage =candidatevotes / totalvotes * 100) |>
  select(year, state, state_po, percentage) |>
  pivot_wider(values_from=percentage, names_from=year) |>
  left_join(totals)
  
 ggplot(d, aes(x=`2016`, y=`2020`, size=totalvotes, fill=`2020`, label=state_po)) + 
  geom_abline(intercept=0, slope=1, lty=2, color="grey") +
  geom_label()+ 
  scale_fill_gradient2(midpoint = 50, mid="grey") +
  ylab("Biden's vote share in 2020") + xlab("Clinton's vote share in 2016") +
  ggthemes::theme_economist() + theme(legend.position = "none")