counting opening 6-card hands that result in at least one lonefire blossom (as an example)
this is just to show that the 37-card approximation is close enough to the 40-card probabilities that it can be used in other calculations (e.g. my hand simulator: https://github.com/vivaria/hand-simulator)
obviously the actual lonefire % is much more complicated due to multiple different combos, but that's covered in the hand simulator.
# 40-card deck method w/redraws
- number of opening hands (40 choose 6): 3,838,380
- number of 6-card hands with 1 or 2 lonefire (regardless of upstart): 1,077,699