SAO Abridged Episode 12 Estimate
Mathematically estimated episode 12 release date: August 14th, 2017.
Most optimistic possible guess: June 29th, 2017.
I'm not a mathematician or a statistician, but neither are you.
| EP | Release Date | Days since the previous release |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2013-03-29 | - |
| 2 | 2013-08-19 | 143 days |
| 3 | 2013-12-21 | 124 days |
| 4 | 2014-04-09 | 128 days |
| 5 | 2014-12-11 | 226 days |
| 6 | 2015-04-22 | 131 days |
| 7 | 2015-07-31 | 100 days |
| 8 | 2015-11-01 | 93 days |
| 9 | 2016-03-11 | 131 days |
| 10 | 2016-08-28 | 169 days |
| 11 | 2017-03-28 | 212 days |
- Overall average: 146 days (4.86 months)
- Average of episodes 6-10: 98.8 days (3.29 months)
This is sort of, when they "got going" but also excluding the last episode, which took signifigantly longer because it was the big finale - Average since they joined Patreon (2015-08-01): 151 days (5.03 months)
Since joining Patreon but excluding episode 11: 98.5 days (3.28 months) - Overall average excluding episodes 5 and 11 (the 200+ days ones): 127.75 days (4.25 months)
- Average between the sans-5-and-11 average and the overall Patreon average: 139.375 days
This is what I used for the estimate at the top.
The optimistic estimate is just the shortest gap between episodes (93 days)
The Patreon join date is listed at 2015-08-01. Patreon doesn't list when creators joined, but the first posts visible on Patreon are dated August 1st.
Despite them joining Patreon one day after releasing episode 7, episode 8 is the first episode with a Patreon badge at the end.
Relevant Reddit AMA quote
We used to have regular jobs, but thanks to our supporters on Patreon, we've been able to do this full-time since (I believe) after episode 7. The reason it takes so long to make the episodes is twofold:
We have to work around our actors schedules. This probably causes the most delays. Even when they are free, recording the bigger characters can take a few days each, depending on how how many lines they have and how stressful they are on their throats.
The actual editing takes anywhere from 1-2 months all by itself. Lip-syncing, complex visual effects, sound mixing, etc. all have to be carefully made and perfectly balanced to produce the kind of quality we expect of ourselves. During the final stretch of editing, I'm (YamatoSFX) usually working for 16 hours straight.
datediff() {
d1=$(date -d "$1" +%s)
d2=$(date -d "$2" +%s)
echo $(( (d1 - d2) / 86400 )) days
}